To: robert duke who wrote (8455 ) 3/30/1999 11:55:00 PM From: Jorge Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 41369
Robert...It looks like my price target of $140 for today was a little conservative...I wouldn't want to wager a guess near term how high AOL will go as all the "great" news has been announced...We may get some consolidation from here until shortly before earnings, at which time, if the overall market hasn't tanked by then, we COULD see somewhere in the $150-160 range by then. I think earnings will be fantastic...Subscriptions, e-commerce deals (advertising and revenue sharing) will all be substantial in size and growth, I'm quite certain. I'm almost certain we will see another split this year...I was talking to a friend here in my home town and we were speculating as to whether AOL could even split 2 more time this year....The question we were posing to each other is if more deals, of large magnitude are released on a fairly steady basis, and if earnings grow greater than most are expecting the stock price of AOL could get so high we'd almost NEED 2 more splits to keep the price of this puppy at a fairly reasonable level.......If the price keeps going up, without some type of correction bringing the mkt./stock back , we could have AOL up around the $300 dollar range by this Fall.....Can AOL REALLY do that?.......Yes, it can...It did that last year--up 485%--a level most people would say is impossible, yet it happened. IMO, AOL is "Better" positioned THIS year than last year when it entered into a hyper-growth phase....I don't see any reason why we can't have AOL, without factoring in any split adjustments, at around $400 per share by the end of this year..... AOL, like any other company, won't always grow this fast every year..But there may be 2-3, maybe more years where it will be in this phase...Like DELL, or MSFT, or INTC, eventually the growth will level out a little more, where you could see a "double" every year for awhile..... But for now, I think we are going to see 300-500% growth for the next 2 years anyway......What do you think? Regards, George