To: David Tesorero who wrote (10163 ) 3/31/1999 12:03:00 PM From: Samuel R Orr Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 11555
Good Lord David, You are trying to get a second meal from me before you eat the first! Nevertheless, I'll take that bet. Even Lennie Perham, who once worked for me when he was a young(and excellent) engineer at Honeywell, can't prevent IDTI from doubling once before AOL doubles twice. Kind Providence couldn't allow me to lose like a mongrel dog again, could it? This summer, I'll elaborate on why I've considered myself an investor buying small and mid cap stocks, and why I deem those who buy(and immediately sell) large caps such as AOL, Amazon.com, Yahoo, E Bay, and even old familiars like IBM, Lucent, and Intel, to really be traders. Their philosophy seems to be to find the trend of a moving wave, instantaneously sample it, buy, monitor the wave, and immediately sell if a cusp or inflection point occurs. Someday, though, there may be trouble when they all try to get through the exit gate at the same time. Today's electronic sampling techniques are equal to the sampling task, and in an eight year bull market, monotonically rising stocks permit such a scheme to work well, indeed. However, if a flat trend ever develops, and the only signal they monitor is noise, kiss those profits goodbye. There have been single decades in which the DOW did not rise at all. The only admission I'm willing to make for all the world to read is that your technique works and mine doesn't. Who cares about a little thing like that! Didn't someone once say, "I'd rather be right than president." Take care of yourself up there, and I have great expectations of at least winning one bet. If not, LSI Logic is doing well today, and I've got enough of it to pay for lunch. Sam