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Technology Stocks : NEXTEL -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Anthony Wong who wrote (8970)	3/30/1999 10:08:00 PM
From: SteveG	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10227

from CSFB Nextel We believe Nextel will make solid progress in the first quarter 1999, delivering strong net add, ARPU and cash flow results. Our current net adds estimate is 350,000; however, we believe the company is more likely to exceed our number, posting net adds between 350,000 and 400,000, driven in part by strong sales of the i-1000 handset, the multi-feature StarTac-like phone by Motorola that made its debut in September 1998. Fueled by increased usage, we are forecasting ARPU of $70, which would represent a 6% increase year over year. Despite dilution from international operations, Nextel is on track to deliver positive operating cash flow on a consolidated basis for the first time which we consider a very important inflection point. Our EBITDA estimate for Nextel is $8.1 million, versus $(105.0) million in first quarter 1998. On the international side, Nextel should add something in line with our net add estimate of 50,000 new subscribers for the quarter; however, the start-up expenses will be higher than we anticipated at a loss of around $60-$70 million. However, the domestic operating cash flow number is likely to be higher than our expectations of $53 million which should lead to the company's coming in line with our consolidated operating cash flow number of positive $8 million. Our earnings estimate is $(1.48), up slightly from $(1.53) in the comparable quarter of 1998. We expect Nextel to report its earnings results sometime in late April/early May. We believe Nextel, which is up more than 60% year to date, will be in an increasingly positive position as it launches its new Internet phone later this year, and as its new GSM/iDEN phone also becomes available in the future. fwiw, also see: Message 8619030