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Technology Stocks : Etec Systems moving up -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Q. who wrote (1187)	3/30/1999 7:16:00 PM
From: Smart Investor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1279

This is a huge disappointment. Mid 20's is definitely possible, and we may see teens in the near future.

To: Q. who wrote (1187)	3/30/1999 9:08:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1279

John, 1. I suspect that the market understands ETEC's business lumpiness quite well by now. I too would be surprised if it closes down more than 15% tomorrow. 2. The comments seemed to me, at least, to be specific to the mask making equipment sector. Lehman has some notes on the web today in which it expects both Packaging and Front End Wafer processing to be ahead of current estimates. (LRCX and KLIC stand out in my memory for beating the current estimate that Lehman had.) So it's hard to say how rational the market will behave tomorrow. Sorry to hear that you top-ticked this minicycle. I hope that you're back in the black quickly. Regards, Ian.

To: Q. who wrote (1187)	3/31/1999 12:07:00 AM
From: Carl R.	Respond to of 1279

This news really doesn't come as a great shock. If you look at MASK, PLAB, and DPMI you see that yes, there is overcapacity in mask making. I've been wondering how long ETEC could remain immune from the problems, and apparently the answer is that they can't. The head of UTEK made some pretty moronic comments about how there was insatiable demand for mask making equipment awhile back, but surely no one believed them. There is clearly overcapacity for mask production at .25µ and above. The only thing driving demand for ETEC equipment right now is the need for masks at .21µ and below right now. This make cause an initial repercussion in MASK, DPMI, and PLAB, but really for them it is good news. A slowdown in orders for equipment will help them work through their own overcapacity. I don't think this will effect other semi cap stocks and the effect will be localized. Carl