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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (9527)	3/30/1999 9:21:00 PM
From: Giordano Bruno	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

<<<Earnings suck, deflation and rates have bottomed.>>> mathematik.uni-marburg.de

To: bobby beara who wrote (9527)	3/30/1999 9:37:00 PM
From: Les H	Respond to of 99985

Friday March 26, 1:18 pm Eastern Time SNAPSHOT - Main U.S. stock technical indicators March 25 DJIA S&P500 NYSE Comp Nasdaq Comp HIGH 9841.94 1290.01 604.86 2434.89 LOW 9664.90 1270.18 596.51 2365.58 CLOSE 9836.39 1289.99 604.86 2434.76 RESISTANCE 1 10000.00 1310.00 620.00 2450.00 SUPPORT 1 9800.00 1250.00 600.00 2250.00 50 DAY MA 9463.93 1258.33 594.64 2371.35 200 DAY MA 8872.54 1148.07 562.87 1979.24 Key index data as of March 25 close VALUE LINE-A RUSSELL 2000 S&P 100 HIGH 892.08 392.99 647.57 LOW 878.31 384.40 635.50 CLOSE 892.08 392.99 647.53 Pct of NYSE stocks trading over 10- and 30. Moving Averages. Data provided by Investors Intelligence. March 25 March 16 10-week M.A. 35.71 41.74 30-week M.A. 38.37 42.79 LATEST SENTIMENT READINGS FOR U.S. STOCKS (weekly change) Investors Intelligence Sentiment index - 3/26 vs 3/19 Bulls -- 55.9 pct from 52.6 Bears -- 29.7 pct from 29.8 Correction -- 14.4 pct from 17.6 Correction indicates those expecting near-term pullback American Assoc. of Individual Investors - 3/25 vs 3/18 Bullish -- 38 pct from 48 pct Bearish -- 29 pct from 21 pct Neutral -- 33 pct from 31 pct Results based on 35 percent response rate. WEEKLY NYSE VOLUME DATA (in thousands): wk ended 3/12 wk ended 3/05 TOTAL VOLUME Weekly 4,099,134.2 3,780,874.0 Average daily 819,826.8 756,174.8 SHORT SALES Public 180,607.8 160,872.4 Members 257,075.9 222,880.6 Total 437,683.7 383,753.0 Data provided by the New York Stock Exchange* CUMULATIVE 1ST QTR U.S. EARNINGS SURPRISES AS OF MARCH 22 POS/ % NEG/% ON TGT/% S&P 500 16 8/50% 3/19% 5/31% I/B/E/S Universe 60 36/60% 13/22% 11/18% $500 mln or less 28 17/61% 8/29% 3/11% $500 mln - $1 bln 9 7/78% 1/11% 1/11% $1 bln or more 23 12/52% 4/17% 7/30% ----------------------------------------------------------- Data on earnings reports exceeding (positive) or falling below (negative) analysts' expectations provided by I/B/E/S. biz.yahoo.com >>>Yahoo news search for "technical indicators" will locate each >>>Friday the above U.S. markets report. >>>Only half of the stocks reporting in the S&P 500 exceeded >>>estimates last week. It'll be interesting to see how many >>>can beat estimates in the critical month of April.

To: bobby beara who wrote (9527)	3/30/1999 10:15:00 PM
From: Stanisav Richter	Respond to of 99985

Basics: Survey - What indicators for you? I am trying to get a model of what indicators market watchers like Silicon Investor posters look at first, most and what they think are the real "industry standards" (whether they use them or not). I will post the results by category on all lists I survey. Thus these dozen or so questions: What measure of oversold/undersold condition do you look at first? What measure do you think others look at first? What measure is most decisive? What measure do you think others feel is most important? What measure of momentum do you look at first? What measure do you think others look at first? What measure is most insightful? What measure do you think others feel is most important? What measure of volatility do you look at first? What measure do you think others look at first? What measure is most exact? What measure do you think others feel is most important? What measure of value do you look at first? (for any broad index you feel represents the market you are concerned with, no matter which) What measure of value do you think others look at within the market you are most concerned with? What is the most important measure of general stock market value? What is the measure of general stock market value upon which most people base their decisions?

To: bobby beara who wrote (9527)	3/31/1999 5:16:00 AM
From: Jack Luo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

bobby and thread: I have the same feeling that OEX may already hit the top yesterday and completed its 6-month bull run of the current 9-month cycle. decisionpoint.com Nasdaq is forming a double top at 2500, which needs to be confirmed in the near future. If it continues heading south, the stops on the way are 2400, 2250, and 2000 which is about 20% correction. Nasdaq's pull-back from July high to Oct low in the last cycle is over 25%. decisionpoint.com I would give OEX and Nasdaq more weight than other indices since that is the place where the money flows in today's market. DOW has lagged behind Nasdaq since last market bottom; I don't think it will outperform Nasdaq this time. Therefore, the market could turn around even before DOW hits its projected top in this DOW forecast chart. decisionpoint.com If we use the new upper trend-line of DOW formed under this new economy (Internet/E-commerce) since last Oct., it already touched its upper bond. I really doubt that DOW can hit 10500 before a large market correction. Also, take a close look at who helped pushing DOW over 10K - Oil stocks! That was not a good sign. Gas price is up almost 30% in the last several weeks. With travel season getting closer, we may never see 99c gas again in the rest of year. Commodity price could follow the gas price soon. Let's take a look at individual stocks. Old Market Leaders: Although few market leaders, such as MSFT, GE, and EMC are still in their final run, most of the former market leaders who have led the bull run in this cycle and in the 90's have started following down trends. MSFT will pull back because its settlement with US government will be tough to reach. The latest news that state attorney generals wanted MSFT to split could force MSFT to enter a new battle field. GE, a traditional large cap, with a 40 p/e and a 14% growth has very little room to move up. It needs to give back 20~25% of its share price and re-start a new run at either $95, 1st strong support or $90, 2nd strong support. In the last cycle, GE dropped about 25% from July high to Oct low. Internet Stars: Similarly, most of Internet stars are running out of gas after a huge run-up since Jan. Some of them show sign of weakness and down-trends from their early March highs. CMGI is moving sideway with a declined volume, so are CNET and DCLK. GENT keeps dropping from all time high of $150. AOL and AMZN are the only two who are still moving up with some strength. The recent movement of these two are resulted from the PR and analysts comments. AMZN's up movement could form a double top. I am wondering how high AOL can go without high speed cable modem access. New Market Performers: QWST is turning back after failing to break resistance at $75. GBLX forms lower highs with decreased volume. BRCM and VTSS have been in a sidewalk for quite a while, they will not move up until the next earning report. NEON will meet the strong resistance at $65 and may be in the formation of H&S. WCOM is re-testing 52wk high $94. CMVT failed breaking out a strong resistance at $85. I can go on and on to list many market performers who appeared very tired after a big run-up. Only QCOM recently jumped high; but it looks like a good short target. Earning season starts with GE reporting in April 8th. KO and EK just released sale and earning warning. More warnings from tech companies could come, given the weakness in PC and Semi sectors. The War with Yugoslav could drag much longer than Clinton thought and NATO may have to use ground troop to fight Serbian army in Kosovo. With those bearish observations, I decided unloading a half of my long positions. Sold ATHM, UNPH, TLAB, VTSS, CSCO, and SNMM this morning. Sold FIBR a bit too early, it run up more than 2 bucks today. Still hold NEON, BRCM, CMVT, INTC, LU, CNXT, SEBL, and GE. I am 50% in cash now. If the market continue decline in the next few days, I will unload the rest of my portfolio. My sense is that we are in the edge of a large correction. The downside of this 9-month cycle could begin very soon, unless lots of good earning surprises keep coming and postpone the correction to post-earning season. I could be wrong and jump out too early, but I don't want to take a chance. In my opinion, the odds that market is going either down or sideway are much high than moving up. We should know pretty soon. One more funny thing of today's market, the bigger the loss, the higher the share price. That may be reason why more and more people turn to TA and give up FA and balance sheet; p/e and earning mean nothing; price target keeps moving; makes you wondering how long this market can keep going? Jack