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To: BigBull who wrote (41297)	3/30/1999 10:35:00 PM
From: BigBull	Respond to of 95453

George, The timing of the appearance of this article is scary. The two key parts of the article (as I see it) are: "Even so, Asia's energy demand is expected to grow by more than 50 percent between 1996 and 2010." and "Transportation will continue to propel world energy demand, both in advanced industrialized countries -- where consumers are buying larger vehicles and using air travel more -- and in developing nations where car ownership is rising fast. Asia and Central and South America will account for more than two-fifths of the rise in the number of vehicles between 1996 and 2010." Well enough Bull Blather for the night, I'm signing off. I'll see you at the top. Eyes on the prize. It's the price of oil STUPID. Energy News Tue, 30 Mar 1999, 10:21pm EST Asia Oil Use to Exceed North American Demand in 2005, DOE Says Washington, March 30 (Bloomberg) -- Asia, once the world's fastest growing energy user, will not surpass North America in oil consumption until 2005, five years later than forecast last year, a U.S. Energy Department report said. ''The Asian economic crisis -- which began in the spring of 1997 and persisted throughout 1998 -- has temporarily stopped the region's growth in energy demand,'' the department's Energy Information Administration said in its International Energy Outlook 1999. Asia accounted for two-thirds of the world's oil demand growth in the 1990s, though by 1998 demand in the region stalled and in some countries fell by 5 percent or more. Even so, Asia's energy demand is expected to grow by more than 50 percent between 1996 and 2010. Projections for weaker demand in Asia, Russia and eastern Europe contributed to a lower forecast of global energy- related carbon dioxide emissions. In 2010, emissions of CO2, blamed partly for global warming, will be 39 percent above 1990 levels, down 4 percent from the department's previous estimate. The year 1990 was used as a benchmark for pollution reductions agreed to at the 1997 international climate conference in Kyoto, Japan. The Kyoto agreement calls for emissions to be 7 percent below 1990 levels by 2010. Trading Pollution Credits The Kyoto agreement allows countries to pollute above their target levels if they buy 'credits' from countries that pollute less. Russia and eastern Europe, for instance, are expected to have emissions credits of at least 374 million metric tons of carbon dioxide in 2010, compared with 196 million tons in last year's analysis, the report said. Those credits could be sold to countries such as the U.S., which has a Kyoto-agreed target of 1,252 million tons for 2010 though was creating 1,463 million tons of emissions in 1996. The Energy Department report said natural gas will be the fastest growing energy source between 1996 and 2010, with use increasing almost 60 percent and surpassing coal consumption by 2005. That's because gas turbines are less expensive and more efficient than other types of electricity generators, and also because gas is a cleaner-burning fuel than oil or coal. Low fossil fuel prices continue to deter the rapid development of renewable energy sources, though the Kyoto protocol ''may provide an opportunity'' for such projects, the report said. Nuclear energy's share of the electricity-generating market is expected to decline over the next two decades because of competition from gas and concern about nuclear waste, even though increased nuclear power usage would cut carbon emissions. Transportation will continue to propel world energy demand, both in advanced industrialized countries -- where consumers are buying larger vehicles and using air travel more -- and in developing nations where car ownership is rising fast. Asia and Central and South America will account for more than two-fifths of the rise in the number of vehicles between 1996 and 2010. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- © Copyright 1999, Bloomberg L.P. All Rights Reserved.

To: BigBull who wrote (41297)	3/31/1999 7:13:00 AM
From: Crimson Ghost	Respond to of 95453

Big Bull: I agree we are now in the phase of the cycle where economically sensitive issues greatly outperform. And they will to do well for some time yet. But these issues typically do best near the end of an a market cycle. When inflation starts to pick up and interest rates begin to move higher. So by all means let's play these types of stocks to the limit. But keep in the mind that it is late in the market cycle and the good times will not last forever. Perhaps I did exaggerate when I said the bull would have ended long ago if not for the Asian meltdown. But it cvertainly would have been a lot less of a bubble. My guess is that the Dow would now be in the 8000-9000 range if this had been a normal cycle and the Fed had not cut rates late last year.