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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rock_nj who wrote (4778)	3/31/1999 8:35:00 AM
From: Rande Is	Respond to of 57584

More on Y2K. . . . I have written much on Y2K here. Search "Rande Y2K" on the HOME thread for views. I expressed views on what I thought would happen with Y2K. . . but I did not express how I thought people would react in days/weeks leading up to it. It is really anyone's guess on that. The prudent guess would be that a third would take most precautions and preparations, a third would be complacent and take minimal precautions and a third would do nothing. Doesn't sound bad, until you realize that it translates into 80 million Americans running around to banks, brokerages, survival goods stores. The Fed would not have taken the precautions they have and printed so much extra cash, if they expected little effect. I think it is "hip" to ignore Y2K. It is being played by the media as not a computer problem. . .but a Christian problem. I must say that every well known Christian author has a fear-based book title out there and is on the Y2K TOUR OF FEAR [my name for it]. Unfortunately, many in this country have mistaken a bad string of computer coded digital switches with Nostradamus' predictions of coming doom before the end of the century and with the second coming of Christ. With the media mixing this pot, it creates a REAL fear. . .based on a FANTASY event. Nostradamus predictions were made so long ago that the calendar has been changed since then. . .do we heed his original dates? Or do we adjust the dates to account for whatever Gregorian changes occurred? And what happened to that comet, Nostry? As for second coming, many churches have preached PRE-tribulation views of Christ coming to rapture the church BEFORE the tribulation prophesized in the Bible. But there most indications are that such an event will be AFTER the persecution of Christians and NOT before. . 3 and a half years after this persecution officially begins [the book of Daniel is the key to understanding the Revelation]. . . and only a vague reference to any such event happening BEFORE the persecution can be found in the scriptures. So forget about a second coming around the turn of the millenium. . .it cannot happen. So we are left with JUST a computer glitch. We have had power outages and water rationing here in Tennessee that have lasted many weeks, due to tornados. People get by. Volunteers trek hundreds of miles to help those in need. . . and they will be there in January, if needed, too. I have said that I don't think problems will be EVERYWHERE, but rather scattered. . .therefore more easily handled. So now what is left? Nothing but the fear. . .and that is driven by the media. So, to answer the question about how this will affect the markets. . .the leading indicator is how the media plans on dealing with the fear. If they have decided to downplay it. . .the markets should be less volatile. But if they exploit it for every lousy Nielsen rating they can get, then I would expect some wild volatility in December. I have already stated that I believe we will see a REALLY sharp rally in November, followed by a sharp decline in December. January we go up hard and strong, regardless of the Y2K problems. Anything short of anarchy in the streets, and we go up, due to money flow into funds then. The market can't help it. With all that money, it must rise. I think that is what we have seen recently. . . the funds have artificially pushed up the Dow on very narrow trading, then each time the fund managers stop their buying, the whole market takes its natural direction, which is downward. I have turned mostly bearish over the past few weeks. . .and don't expect to be bullish until the August humidity. I think Y2K first and second tiers will see erratic spikes, but I am looking to get OUT of them, not in. . .long term. Third-tier survival companies still look good, but not until the dead of summer when they are at their weakest. . .Coleman, SGDE, etc. Whether or not to go cash in December follows my BASIC RULE for Y2K: "Prepare to the extent of what you believe will occur." Definitely put some water away. But I don't plan on cashing in all of my stock. . .might reduce a bit of risk. . .by selling off about the first or second week in December [expecting a hard sell-off between about the 12th and end of month], but if the market crashes hard in December, I will right there to buy the best ones at the bottom. And yes, you are correct that it will set up a great buying opportunity. But not as good as the one that I am looking for in August. . . especially with small caps. All things considered, if there is no bloodshed in the streets across America come January 3rd, the market will rally like mad. Rande Is