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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (39213)	3/31/1999 1:11:00 PM
From: Jon Stept	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Chip, re:"...4½ year climb to 10,000..." Hi Chip, Thanx for the post. Tuesday's (3/30/99) Wall Street Journal had a special on the 10,000 and a list of all the dates when it closed above the next 100 (... 1,100 then 1,200, then 1,3000, etc...). The 10,0000 is such an unrelative figure. The Dow-to-time graph that is typically used is dramatic, but very misleading. I was curious how it advanced on a percentage basis. So, I used an Excel spreadsheet and calculated since 1896 (beginning of Dow) 10% increases and approximated data from Wall Street Journal. I could only use the data after about 1965 because up till that point the 10% increments were so small the data which covered 100 point movements was too big. But still, from 1964 thru 3/5/99 I calculated the days between each successive 10% move then did a %move/day. Then I also worked backwards to see how long it took the market to double. Lots can be gleaned from the calculations. The interesting ones to me are the 10% increase that took so much time from 3/19/98 to 3/5/99. Also, the tremendous double from 1983 to 1987 that lasted, conservatively, only about 4 years. The dates to Dow are approximate using the figures from the Wall Street Journal. To get really accurate, I would need each day's closing... something I will probably do in the future. Here is what I got working backwards: It took 3 years and 4 months to get to 10,000. It took 8 years and 4 months to get to 5,000. It took 4 years and 4 months to get to 2,500. Also, here is the 10% move increments: # days to get %move/day Dow Date there. (.10/#days*1000) ==== ======= ====== ========= 814 2/28/64 895 1/28/65 330 30 985 11/14/72 2806 4 1083 2/24/83 3700 3 1192 4/26/83 62 161 1311 5/20/85 744 13 1442 11/6/85 166 60 1586 2/6/86 90 111 1745 2/27/86 21 476 1919 7/1/86 124 81 2111 1/19/87 198 51 2323 3/20/87 61 164 2555 7/17/87 117 85 2810 1/2/90 885 11 3091 4/17/91 465 22 3400 6/1/92 404 25 3740 11/16/93 525 19 4114 3/24/95 488 20 4526 6/16/95 82 122 4979 11/21/95 155 65 5476 2/8/96 77 130 6024 10/14/96 246 41 6626 1/7/97 83 120 7289 5/15/97 128 78 8018 7/16/97 61 164 8820 3/19/98 243 41 9702 3/5/99 346 29 Just my opinion and calculations. Jon :)