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To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (41319)	3/31/1999 11:54:00 AM
From: SargeK	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Turning Disaster into Success (a worst case scenario) Jim, Here is a scenario you might wish to consider. Let us assume you purchased 2k/UFAB on 10/10/97 @41 and decided to throw in the towel on 9/4/98 @ 10. And let us assume you did appropriate DD and although the stock price took a beating, the company continued to grow during the industrys' cyclical downturn and you realize that a very healthy baby had been thrown out with the bath water. The question arises on what you might do to not only recapture the loss but turn the failure into a success. Let us assume you matched the first ($82k) bet by buying back in on 3/25/99 @8. You would start off with the $20k received from the prior sell @$10. You would then add to that the IRS subsidy (28%$62k for illustration) of $17,360. You would then add to that $44640. (proceeds from a more profitable trade) providing a total of $82k matching the original investment. @$8. you would have purchased 10.25k shares. Let us further assume the stock price only retraces to 50% of its all time high of 42 7/8 set on 10/10/97, realistically achievable based on company fundamentals and current anticipated market environments. (10.25k 21 7/16 = $219734.37). The net loss of $44640. on the previous trade added to the net proceeds of $37360. of that trade + $44460.00 (new capital) provides a break even basis of $126460. If successful the second trade would not only recover the losses of the first trade but result in a gain of $93274.37 for the two transactions. All it takes is money, confidence, timing, guts and a little luck. SargeK