To: Think4Yourself who wrote (41327 ) 3/31/1999 12:13:00 PM From: SliderOnTheBlack Respond to of 95453
Gut Check time... buy/hold/sell ? Technicals ? Interesting to see the weak hands shaken out again...GIFI melting, FGI soft, PTEN giving back its gains etc. Actually imho; we were due for some healthy back & filling. We had a spike up, I see a retracement to OSX 65-66 as healthy and expect strong buying support there. Technicians - comments ? support @ OSX 65-66 ? - anyone else see this as the support level to firm and form a base to 72-78 ? Is OSX 85ish unrealistic as a target/resistance level with $16 Oil holding steady and the talk of $18 by 2000 appearing allmost daily now ? The three day weekend is actually setting up a good trading opp imho. I am buying weakness here - trying to catch some intra-day lows and look for Monday's opening to be a strong buying day (strength for me to sell these trading buys into) - as these are traditionally up days after long weekends... GIFI, FLC, RIG and a few others here on continued weakness look good to me ... RIG at $26-7 is a gift ! - a literal ''must own'' when compared valuationwise to its peers. I'd love to get FLC a tic under $7 and FGI in the $14's again...who knows what the next day, or two holds ? I've got my lines in the water... Got to sell a few stocks into decent strength here; got out of GIFI yesterday at $12 and can rebuy today in $10's... spun out of a stock I love longterm, GMRK @ $13+ on good strength today - from $11 7/8ths; using funds to buy laggards. Rotation, rotation, rotation - it's what's working for me - no sense changing what's working... Selling Strength as the sector pauses and rotating into the best laggards, or the selloff/retracement of top companies like FGI/GIFI as we back & fill here is working... EEX is an interesting E&P play; a classic sentiment over-reaction. Company was in partnership on an appraisal well (Llano). Less than expected positive news release yesterday - and an over reaction selloff from an allready cheap valuation has led to a great trading/buying opp imho. Llano is one of many GOM projects EEX has - the stock basically sold off as if this was a company maker/breaker - when nothing could be further from reality... a classic buying opp. NAV is $7 without Llano even factored, company has tremendous upside for its size to remaining prospects. Llano isn't over - call it an unexpected time out... Stock is selling at the bottom of its peer group valuationwise and is in the top tier as far as its leverage to the upside with any of its many GOM drilling opportunities....I'll take that risk/reward scenario every time. EEX could be a quick ride back to $6 = 20% + and from there to $7 = 40%+; which is a resistance level that it has traded to of late; hardly an unrealistic target. Dain Rauscher Wessels has a Strong Buy and a $9-11 target price...imho; $4 7/8ths - $5ish here as a 40-50% initial position is prudent; I'd sit for a new low if there is a major seller willing to keep dumping; next entry - I'd use a limit buy order @ $4, or wait untill the sellers bleed out here and we build a base through $5 1/2 - 3//4's and I'd add again on strength there... All in all; looks like a good period in which to add, or enter new positions in some stocks as they are giving some 2nd chances to get aboard here... anyone else have anything that's working ? Buying/trading ? Sarge, another pause that refreshes ? - damn; had the new Navigator all picked out - if only GIFI would have touched $15 - it was mine ! - all mine !!!!!!!! damn, patience is not a virtue - it is sheer torture...