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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Thomas M. Carroll who wrote (9575)	3/31/1999 12:56:00 PM
From: Les H	Respond to of 99985

Sorry, I left off the "s". Don Hays is technical market analyst at Wheat First Securities. He can be found at: wheatfirst.com Another analyst Downing TA below investorlinks.com For Wednesday, March 31, 1999 The S&P 500 Cash Index has resistance at its old closing high of 1,316.55. It now also has resistance on its chart at 1,315.00. The combination makes for a minor cluster of resistance. There is a major cluster of support from 1,260.00 to 1,264.33. Chart support is at 1,260.00. The 50 day moving average is at 1,261.10 and rising. We have a short term reaction low at 1,262.14. These three points make up a strong cluster of support. A great number of short term price momentum indicators continue to fall. These indicators can fall while the market rises or corrects. Intermediate term price momentum indicators continue to climb slowly. When the short term price momentum indicators fall below the intermediate term momentum price indicators we generally have sell signals. We are close to that but not there yet. The bond market reversed its short term trend yesterday from an over sold condition. Our feeling is that the upside trend will be limited on this run and one reason for this was the weakness in the Utility Average. The Dow Jones Utility Average is again under its 50 and 200 day moving averages and the 50 day continues to run under the 200 day moving average. Wednesday is a key day in terms of time. The S&P 500 Cash Index is will be 144 trading days from its major low at 957.53 and it will be 34 trading days from its minor reaction low at 1,216.14. 34 and 144 are Fibonacci numbers and the markets tend to have significant moves on these anniversary dates.

To: Thomas M. Carroll who wrote (9575)	3/31/1999 1:03:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

INDEX UPDATE ============================== The DOW was up over 80 and basicly just flat so far. The NEW LOWs are at 87 right now, not showing any improvement from yesterday when the DOW was down 93. Granted that it commonly takes a few days for the NEW HIGHs/LOWs to catch up, but keep in mind that it deteriorated immediately yesterday. It could change, but for now, I am sensing that the NEW HIGHs/LOWs are deteriorating faster on down days than improving on up days. I would not interpret that as a positive for the market. seeya