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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J. P. who wrote (9597)	3/31/1999 6:29:00 PM
From: Compadre	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

jp: <<Re: Nasdaq>> I know that your question is addressed to Donald. But I want to point out something in your price target for the Index that does not make sense to me. It is very true that these 9 mo. cycles are very regular for the NAZ. It is also true that the Index will meet with its 200 dma in each cycle. But it is not true that it will come down to meet it every time. In the cycle of 1995-96, the NAZ was just as high above the 200 dma as today. Eventually the 200 dma came up the meet the Index. The NAZ was flat for the four month between 9/95 to 1/96. I am not claiming that it will not fall this time, just saying that it is not a golden rule. The best way to play this is just let the market tell you where it is going rather than anticipating the move. Just be patient and the market will tell you when it is ready to come down. And by the way, my sell signals for mutual fund switch are still true for todays close. Regards, Jaime

To: J. P. who wrote (9597)	3/31/1999 6:36:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

JP, >>>> If you look back on the nasdaq since 1995, the cycle is always off the 200 day moving average. 6 times in a row, the Nasdaq has cyclically bounced off it's highs back to the 200 day moving average, before moving up to new highs. finance.yahoo.com^IXIC&d=5ym <<<<<<< I am in agreement, and to further support your observation, here are the 9 month cycle bottoms since 1995: JULY 99 OCT 98 JAN 98 APR 97 JULY 96 OCT 95 JAN 95 Now compare those dates with that chart, and you will see a strong correlation. Also notice that the downswing to the 200 DMA/9-month bottom starts approximately 3 months prior, so in this case its right about now. You know what is amazing is that I have given to all my investor friends, and many of them are brokers, a copy of a similar chart showing the 9-month cycle, and guess where they ended up - YEP IN THE GARGAGE. So when I hear that so many are bearish, Im just befuddled - I must be from Mars. Hope that was of help. Seeya

To: J. P. who wrote (9597)	3/31/1999 7:07:00 PM
From: Terry Whitman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

JP- That sounds alot like the ole THDMAPFP (200 day ma plus 15%)Indicator that I formulated about a year or so ago. So don't tread on my turf man. <g> This last rally shot the hell out of the +15% caution indicator. I believe we may have gotten above 30% over back at the Feb top. Currently, I believe the NAZ is about 25% over. This extreme overvaluation, combined with what some Sober analysts are calling the ugliest warnings season in the last 20 years, and the 9 month cycle top- could combine to give us a doozy of a correction. If it happens quickly, we may see something like last summer, where the index didn't end up bottoming til 15% BELOW the 200dma. BWDIK, TW