DOE Reports:
March 31, 1999
1) CRUDE OIL WATCH
Crude oil imports were 9.1 million barrels per day (MMBD) over the week ending March 26, 1999, helping total crude stocks to gain 3.8 million barrels. Current U.S. inventory stands at 344.6 MMB with PADD V registering a 4.4 MMB gain to 65.7 MMB. Refinery input held at 14.3 MMBD with a boost in PADD III offsetting a 43,000 barrel per day decline in PADD IV. U.S. refiner utilization of operable capacity grew to 91.9 percent, up 0.9 percent from a week ago, on the rising PADD III operations.
Continuing impressions that the planned cuts in production will tighten crude supply have again caused spot crude prices to rise, this week to $16.16 and $13.97 for Friday closings for benchmark WTI-Cushing and Brent. A year ago, those prices jumped over $2.50, to $16.84 and $14.92 respectively, in one week in response to similar expectations, while the $2.50 increase has taken almost three weeks to accomplish this year. In the U.S., both strong demand and refinery outages, especially on the West Coast, are driving product prices sharply higher, in turn also contributing to the rising pressure on crude prices.
2) DISTILLATE WATCH
March 31, 1999
SUPPLY
For the first time this year, total distillate stocks have slipped below last year's volume. On March 26, 1999, distillate stocks were estimated at 122.1 million barrels (MMB) compared to 125.1 MMB. Stocks in PADDs II, III, and V are 2.6, 2.2, and 1.9 MMB less than last year, respectively. Inventory in the Midwest and the Gulf Coast have frequently been lower than last year's levels over the heating season, but high volumes in PADD I, where there is still a surplus, drove the U.S. total to record weekly highs through most of the heating season. Despite refinery outages due to accidents and planned repair, PADD V production was reported at 0.4 MMBD, about the same as last year. U.S. demand was 4.0 MMBD and imports jumped to 0.4 MMBD this week.
Crude oil input was 14.3 MMBD, as refiners utilized 91.9 percent of their 15.8 MMBD operating capacity.
Distillate Supply Tables
Total Distillate
----------------- Week Ending ---------|---------
District 03/05/99 03/12/99 03/19/99 03/26/99 | 03/26/98
East Coast (PADD I) 59.7 56.6 52.2 49.8 | 46.6
PADD IX 16.3 15.5 13.7 13.6 | NA
PADD IY 30.6 29.1 26.5 24.5 | NA
PADD IZ 12.7 12.1 12.0 11.7 | NA
Midwest (PADD II) 32.4 31.5 31.4 29.2 | 31.8
Gulf Coast (PADD III) 29.3 29.6 29.0 29.6 | 31.8
Rocky Mountain (PADD IV) 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.0 | 2.5
West Coast (PADD V) 12.0 11.0 11.0 10.6 | 12.5
U.S. Total 136.4 131.9 126.9 122.1 | 125.1
PRICES
A decline in petroleum markets due to profit taking on March 24, 1999 was halted by short covering in the futures market and additional refinery problems on the West Coast. Also during the week, Mexico, Norway, Oman, and Russia combined to add another 388 thousand barrels to the 1.7 million barrel OPEC production cut. The New York Harbor spot price for heating oil was 43.30 cents per gallon on March 29, 1999. West Coast prices were up again as the loss of the hydrocracker at Chevron's Richmond refinery was added to a list of outages in the San Francisco area.
The national average retail on-highway diesel fuel price rose for a fifth week, posting a healthy 2.8 cents per gallon gain for the week ending March 29, 1999 and narrowing the comparison to last year's price to 2.2 cents per gallon. A 10.6 cents per gallon jump in California, prompted by growing refinery problems, led the country to a 104.6 cents per gallon national average.
3) GASOLINE
SUPPLY
Continued strong demand, along with further reduced production, resulted in stocks dropping below year ago levels last week. Total motor gasoline stocks fell 5.3 million barrels to end the week at 214.5 million barrels. Stocks of reformulated gasoline decreased 1.3 million barrels to 42.4 million barrels while stocks of other finished gasoline were down 1.5 million barrels to 123.8 million barrels. Stocks of motor gasoline blending components ended the week at 47.8 million barrels, 2.4 million barrels below the level at the end of the prior week. Finished gasoline imports averaged 367 thousand barrels per day compared to 314 thousand barrels per day during the prior week.
Total motor gasoline stocks at the primary storage level were 1.8 million barrels below the level for the same week last year. Imports of total gasoline averaged 514 thousand barrels per day of which 157 thousand barrels per day were reformulated.
Gasoline Supply Tables
PRICES
A decline in petroleum markets due to profit taking on March 24, 1999 was halted by short covering in the futures market and additional refinery problems on the West Coast. Also during the week, Mexico, Norway, Oman, and Russia combined to add another 388 thousand barrels to the 1.7 million barrel OPEC production cut. In the New York Harbor, the spot price for conventional regular gasoline ended at 48.74 cents per gallon on March 29, 1999, up 4.14 cents from a week ago. West Coast prices were up again as the loss of the hydrocracker at Chevron's Richmond refinery was added to a list of outages in the San Francisco area. The Los Angeles reformulated gasoline (CARB) spot price was the highest since CARB gasoline was first introduced in a backdrop of refinery problems three years ago.
This week's gain in average retail price for regular gasoline, fifth in a series, was the largest ever posted in the eight and a half year history of the survey. As of March 29, 1999, the national average cash self-service price of regular gasoline was 108.2 cents per gallon, 6.5 cents higher than last week and 5.2 cents higher than last year. A continued rise in crude oil prices and growing refinery problems were the basis for the most recent price increase.
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