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To: drsvelte who wrote (8020)	3/31/1999 8:17:00 PM
From: Broken_Clock	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14427

doc, The fast line is already overbought. Too much, too fast, IMO. No earnings to support this move. There is no improvement in dayrates or utilization. The jury is still out on opec compliance, asian recovery, etc. Noesis had an interesting comment tonight. EIA data released today shows that refiners are tanking up on crude oil, which is an indication that they believe the price of crude oil will be staying up, at least for awhile. Crude oil inventory levels rose from 340.8 to 344.6 million barrels. And import rates increased from 7.7.8 to 9 million barrels per day. The catch is that the maximum crude oil storage capacity in the U.S. is about 352.6 million barrels. At the current fill rate, refiners will only be importing extra crude for about 2 more weeks. After that, crude oil purchases will drop back to match demand -- which should be about 8.3 million barrels per day ( at current crude oil prices). Full tanks and slack demand in the past have led to lower refiner posted prices for crude oil. Given no other changes in the supply-demand system, the price of oil in general will go down. However, if OPEC successfully demonstrates reduced output from its oil fields, it is possible that they can stem the decrease in prices and then maintain them with continued management of their oil supply. ON A DIFFERENT NOTE: California refineries are keeping up with crude feed rates but are not making enough gasoline. However, it appears that the Ultramar Refinery in Wilmington is doing its best to help out (and is probably making some good profits at that!)One reader reported: "We are a 120,000 bpd refinery making 78,000 bpd of CARB gasoline and 35,000 bpd of EPA diesel. Lets get that into your equation. We do not run any ANS Crude and we import Maya, Isthmus, Loretto, and SJV crudes to run our refinery. There is a severe shortage in the Bay no matter what anyone says and we are here to help!! By the way Tosco in LA. has FCC (cat cracker) problems. Rumor has it they are at 60% of capacity. Our FCC is at 100% of capacity!!!!!" --Anonymous Be sure to visit the oil-gasoline.com site on Monday for a full report --George oil-gasoline.com