PANIC IN THE YEAR ZERO
A real April Fool's Day
New Year's eve is but one problem among many
"The first of April is the day we remember what we are the other 364 days of the year." -- American humorist Mark Twain.
FALKLAND, BC -- On Thursday, the world's first real April Fool's Day could become a reality. Undoubtedly, the jokes will be flying, but it will also mark the second signpost on the road to Y2K disasters.
In 16th-century France, the start of the New Year was observed on April 1 and it was celebrated much the same way as it is today with dancing and partying and playing tricks on both friends and strangers. The butt of the jokes were called April Fools. In 1561, Pope Gregory introduced a new calendar for the Christian world and the New Year fell on January 1st.
According to Y2K experts, such as Loren Jacobs of Southfield, MI, there are nine signposts, starting on Jan. 1, 1999 when infrastructure providers and businesses started testing their systems. No major problems have been reported, however, the real test comes Thursday.
That's when Canada and New York State begin their fiscal year that will, of course, include dates beyond Year 2000. As a result, planning systems, especially budgets that haven't been repaired will fail as they attempt to process Y2K dates. With New York City being the world's media capital, such tabs as the New York Daily News, will be yelling: "Horror! Disaster!"
"I expect the stock market to react and begin a downward spiral," explained Jacobs, adding, "and the number of Y2K optimists will continue to dwindle."
SIGNPOST #1: January 1, 1999.
SIGNPOST #2: April 1, 1999.
SIGNPOST #3: July 1, 1999 -- The Canada and New York problems from April Fool's Day will continue to spread around the globe and, particularly in 45 U.S. states that will mark their fiscal years. The Y2K chaos will begin to start taking a grip.
"We will see the public begin to panic -- particularly where there has not been strong local leadership," Jacobs said.
SIGNPOST #4: August 22, 1999. On this date, the Global Positioning Satellite (GPS) technology will fail in receivers that are not upgraded or replaced. The GPS system consists of 24 satellites that transmit signals to earth, which are in turn picked up by electronic receivers to determine a vehicle's exact location and velocity. They are installed in both military and civilian vehicles and devices, including fighters, bombers, commercial and private airplanes, helicopters, trains, ships, submarines, tanks, jeeps, missiles and other "smart" weapons, police cars and ambulances and some newer-model cars.
SIGNPOST #5: September 9, 1999. That's when many computers will come face to face with the infamous "99" problem. For decades, programmers designated the end of a file or the termination of a program by entering a series of four nines in a row (i.e., "9999") in a date field.
SIGNPOST #6: October 1, 1999. U.S. federal government begins its fiscal year. Computer systems operated by the U.S. Defense, Transportation, Treasury, and Medicare Departments, among others, will begin malfunctioning. All the smoke and mirrors will be gone. The government -- and the administration -- will be forced to admit the truth. There will be no place to hide. The naked truth will be evident to all. According to estimates by the U.S. House Subcommittee on Government Information Management and Technology, 13 out of 24 key federal government agencies will not make the deadline.
SIGNPOST #7: January 1, 2000. All non-compliant computer systems will fail or generate corrupt data, propagating it across systems and bringing down many computers that are compliant. The world will watch with anticipation as the systems fail one time zone at a time.
"How big will it be?" Jacobs asked. "No one really knows. It depends on how many systems are repaired between now and Jan. 1, 2000. Perhaps more importantly, it also depends on what kind of contingency plans we have in place in order to mitigate the damage."
SIGNPOST #8: January 4, 2000. The first business day of the New Year begins. Many businesses, utility companies, and government agencies will not open -- many will not be able to open. Many that do open will be swamped with customer complaints. Chaos and pandemonium will reign.
SIGNPOST#9: February 29, 2000. Leap year has much more meaning on this date. Most people assume that every fourth year is a leap year. However, every fourth turn-of-the-century is a leap year, too. The year 1900 was not a leap year; the year 2000 is. Therefore, if the computer doesn't account for the fact that 2000 will, in fact, have a February 29, then all kinds of calculations will be off, including billing cycles. Unfortunately, many programmers were unaware of this rule, and their programs will stumble over this date, increasing the chaos.
Jacobs, who explained he doesn't speculate about the future, nevertheless, believes the Y2K problems are reason for pessimism in the future with supplies becoming scarcer and prices hitting the ceiling.
He also believes there'll be no last-minute silver bullet -- a magical solution.
"The mythology of the silver bullet is an appealing one," emphasized Jacobs, adding, "It is the main hope of those who believe that 'this problem will be fixed,' but it is not realistic.
"There are 500 computer languages. Many of them are no longer understood since the programmers are either retired or dead. Often several languages are used in one application program. Those containing multiple languages are even harder to fix. There is no one program to fix it. Faith in the silver bullet can ruin families and organizations.
"They delay taking steps to deal with Y2K in faith that a silver bullet will be discovered."
Sources: Y2K Net sites, Loren Jacobs.
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