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Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (29515)	4/1/1999 6:26:00 AM
From: accountclosed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

John, I think I will post what I came to about physics as a public post... what's clear to me is that everyone brings their experience to what they currently do. his background is physics. he sees things in that light. i think the markets which are reflections of the human players involved have all the elements of human behavior...human collective behavior. if you take a momentum model...it works until it doesn't work, so it is unclear whether the model is of value as the magnitude of the doesn't work leg may outweigh the magnitude of the does work leg. i think his model is no different than that. quantum physics cannot figure out the movement of electrons...they have complex equations which describe probabilities of where the electron might be. so he is attempting to fit one chaotic unpredictable system of humans with a science that attempts to statistically define another once thought to be 100% chaotic system. Quantum physics reduces the chaos in describing atomic systems. Does it apply to people? Well perhaps it works until it doesn't work like a momentum model. But the point is why the heck would I take the leap of faith that his model is any better than mine as his model takes me a lot of work to learn for results that i see no evidence it works better. Mine says that people are people, sometimes predictable, often not. That investing is an art and not a science. the parts that are a science are controllable such as asset allocation and appropriate leverage. Know when you are guessing and make the size of that guess appropriate. Hard work, patience, research, reasoning...but knowing that all these have limits.