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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (41446)	4/1/1999 10:10:00 AM
From: Robert Douglas	Respond to of 95453

From this morning's Bear Stearns notes: Brigham Exploration We downgrade BEXP from Buy to Neutral. BEXP reported an abysmal Q4 and 1998 finding costs. BEXP reported Q4 cash flow per share of $(0.09) vs. our estimate of $(0.04) and consensus of $0.01. We believe management is in survival mode. We have a dramatically bleaker 1999 outlook for BEXP than previously anticipated. BEXP also said additional capital would be necessary in order to complete the 1999 budget and management is considering selling either 3D seismic or equity. (Our 1999 estimate actually increased due to lower DD&A expenses that did not benefit cash flow.) Our thesis this year is to stick with companies that have a good strategy, good finding costs, and financial flexibility (i.e., Survival of the Fittest”). With finding costs of $2.59 per mcfe in 1998, all inclusive, BEXP has been severely damaged financially. Furthermore, there could be substantial dilution. We have seen in the past six months financially stressed E&P companies obtain equity capital at significantly greater dilution than anticipated by the market. While survival is certainly probable, we can not tell investors that the outlook for growing the asset base is promising for the next 12 months. For what it's worth. -Robert

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (41446)	4/1/1999 10:11:00 AM
From: Wowzer	Respond to of 95453

OK I am in at 1... Rory

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (41446)	4/1/1999 10:15:00 AM
From: waverider	Respond to of 95453

Slider, apparently the Street doesn't like what it sees here in the report issued last night. biz.yahoo.com FGI holding nicely this morning. <H>

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (41446)	4/1/1999 10:37:00 AM
From: Wowzer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Wow! Thanks slider I owe you a beer! Sold BEXP at 1 3/4 for a cool 75% profit in less then a half hour. Probably sold too soon but too much of a gain too fast for me to give it up... Thanks again and hopefully someday and I can return the favor, Rory

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (41446)	4/1/1999 10:45:00 AM
From: Jon Cave	Respond to of 95453

Think I'll sell all my sorry oil stocks and put the money in AOL. It seems to only go up <g>.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (41446)	4/1/1999 11:06:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 95453

BEXP; not for the feint of heart...did the in @ $1 -out @ $1 3/4 trade ....well the low volume capitulation to 7/8ths caught my attention - no question that a ''bounce trade'' was a gimmie. Good post on the analyst report on BEXP - yes; management is scrambling - but; do you think that Enron - we are speaking ENRON here (VBG); is going to let a $50 Million investment mere months ago get jepordized because of liquidity issues ? - NOT ! - but, dilution is the issue. IMHO; this company differs dramatically from some of the other micro's in its partnering with Enron, its conservative low risk nat gas holdings and its record of seismic and drilling success. These guys way, way overspent on their 1998 cap ex program - they acquired enough seismic data for 3 companies its size; now marketing asset sales etc. Very technically respected little company - this will not be a $1-2 stock long.... not a bad play to keep some shares longterm on this company imho, I'm going to trade it and keep some ''zero cost basis'' shares longterm. Traded the $3 - 3 1/2 range this week; and the ''bounce'' today; - the conference call was posted well in advance of last nights release; capitulation on the unknown & the intial reaction was a given; I see this settling near mid $2's and moving through $3 as they announce either drilling results, or asset sales. Bottomline; a fallen angel - with Enron heavilly invested in their future.