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Technology Stocks : Advanced Fibre (AFCI) ** IPO -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nam, Ki Hyung who wrote (2088)	4/1/1999 1:03:00 PM
From: Nam, Ki Hyung	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3299

Look at the buying power. I think that is a institutional buying. maybe there is something behind AFIC. NAM

To: Nam, Ki Hyung who wrote (2088)	4/2/1999 8:28:00 AM
From: Steve Morytko	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3299

$11.76 - is that your avg. cost :-) Nam, AFCI may go up but ... There is no RBOC contract - only speculation that they may get one with SBC. A new CEO is no guarantee of success. It should add stability to the company which is something an RBOC would expect from a supplier of strategic equipment. Is Schofield the missing link that will lead to an RBOC contract? He seems to have the right credentials but it's also possible that he could make mistakes or create some turmoil. It looks like a positive step to me but it's way too early to pass judgement. As to a buyout I can't see how any suitor could justify paying the huge premium AFCI shareholders will expect while there is potential for a major RBOC contract. The acquiring firm would have to justify the premium (with no guarantee) to their shareholders who would likely balk at such a speculative deal. Catch 22 - as long as an RBOC (likely SBC) deal is possible. Also, if they land a significant (SBC) contract I'd expect the stock to surge on speculation that they could land another. If they don't get an SBC contract we may test the low's for a while and AFC may be desperately looking for suitors. I'd be interested in your thoughts as to what the top 3-5 "many problems" AFCI has are. I agree that there is probably limited downside unless you sell into a slide coming from not getting a contract. Upside is >$30 if they land a significant RBOC contract. But this could continue to drag out for quite a while. These RBOC's take their sweet time. I'd say the short-term (3 weeks and no contract news) low just went to $7 and the high ~$14 based on the CEO announcement. What's going to move the price significantly is earnings warnings, actual earnings, and contract announcements. Does anyone else think they may have dumped this past quarter to give the new CEO a clean slate to start with? In that scenario we'd should see warnings soon. Hanging on for the ride!! Steve