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To: dfloydr who wrote (41465)	4/1/1999 5:17:00 PM
From: Douglas V. Fant	Respond to of 95453

(OT) D. Floyd- Agreed- two reasons for US involvement here- show development of an effective foreign policy as a Clinton Administration legacy, deflect attention from the latest Chinese spy scandal, and also to help VP Gore's Campaign in Year 2000; and (2) and this is not apparent to most people- we (the USA) are carrying Germany's water in eastern Europe. Recognize that Germany in 1999 is now Europe' most powerful nation. It was Germany that encouraged Slovenia and Croatia to secede from Yugoslavia, the first provinces to leave Yugoslavia and to begin the unraveling of that country. (And who first gave official diplomatic recognition to these breakaways provinces? Yup Germany. Trust me-that was no accident). And Germany then encouraged Bosnia to secede. Understand that Germany is not really a 100% western nation. It is half western, half eastern. throughout its history it has tottered on the socio-political fence uncertain in which way to move socially, politically, economically in terms of role models. Germany now sees a chance to occupy the power vacuum left by the Soviet Union's demise in eastern and retreat from Eastern Europe and are moving to establish a strong sphere of influence there. So IMO we are really "carrying Germany's water" in what we are doing now in eastern Europe. I think it no accident that this "peacekeeping mission" is the first time since WWII that German combat soldiers are stationed outside of Germany.... Meanwhile Russia is giving off increasingly more agitated signals if anyone is paying attention. Tonight seven warships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet are steaming for the Adriatic to engage in "exercises" near the NATO Fleets. I'm upping the likelihood of Rusian material assistance to Yugoslavia now from 50/50 to 55/45.. That should help spike oil prices.... Russian lawmakers call for military aid for Belgrade Moscow to send warship to Mediterranean March 31, 1999 Web posted at: 8:31 p.m. EST (0131 GMT) MOSCOW (CNN) -- Legislators scuffled in Russia's parliament Wednesday, united in their opposition to NATO airstrikes on Yugoslavia, but sharply divided over how to respond. Following the failure of a mission by Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov to end the NATO attacks, many Russian politicians are demanding Russia break an international arms embargo on Belgrade. "We should announce to the entire world that we will provide military and technical aid to Yugoslavia in order to minimize civilian casualties there," said Alexander Lebed, the governor of the vast Siberian province of Krasnoyarsk. "This would allow us to unite our nation and regain our self-respect," he said. Acting on Lebed's advice, the upper house of parliament, the Federation Council, approved a non-binding resolution calling on the government to send military aid to Yugoslavia. Russian President Boris Yeltsin and other senior Russian officials have said Russia will not get involved militarily as a result of the NATO campaign. But Russia's defense ministry announced Wednesday it was sending at least one warship to the Mediterranean to monitor the conflict. Defense Minister Igor Sergeyev said a reconnaissance ship would leave its Black Sea port Friday and another six were also ready to go "to ensure Russia's security when the defense ministry considers it necessary." "The defense ministry is also considering more decisive actions that will be recommended to the leadership if the situation changes," Sergeyev said, refusing to elaborate. In Washington, U.S. State Department spokesman James Rubin said the move was not "a particularly helpful gesture." "We are obviously concerned by the signal such a large deployment might send to Belgrade and other countries in the region," he said. Russian officials have blamed NATO for escalating a crisis in Kosovo, prompting tens of thousands of refugees to flee the troubled Serbian province. Primakov, irked by NATO's immediate rejection of the truce offer he negotiated with Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic on Tuesday, said NATO's policy would not result in peace. "There is a consolidated NATO line to continue military actions against Yugoslavia. But those actions will lead nowhere. They will not bring any stability to either Kosovo or the Balkans as a whole," he said. Milosevic had offered to return to peace negotiations and withdraw some of his forces from Kosovo if NATO stopped its air campaign. NATO leaders rebuffed the proposal, saying it fell short of their demands for Milosevic to halt his offensive in Kosovo and accept the framework of a U.S.-drafted peace plan that would grant ethnic Albanians autonomy.