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Technology Stocks : Oracle Corporation (ORCL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Stichnoth who wrote (10308)	4/2/1999 9:16:00 PM
From: hasbeen101	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19080

Oracle used to grow revenues at better than 100% every year, which was an astounding performance. For all practical purposes, those days will never return. I agree with you that over (say) a 5 year period Oracle might still outperform very solidly. However, as I think you would agree, the bigger Oracle gets, and the faster it grows, the harder it will get. A limit such as US GDP or even world GDP is easy to understand because (at least in the latter case) someone would have to be quite insane to believe that the limit could be passed. That limit would take about 25 years @ 40% growth. The practical lesson is that Oracle's trend growth rate has been falling for a long time, and that purely due to the laws of mathematics, it is likely to trend even lower in the future. Even if Oracle could grow from 0.1% of US GDP to 1%, that would be amazing. Sure, it can beat nature for a while, but the more it does so, the more certain it is that the party's end is approaching.