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Technology Stocks : Softbank Group Corp -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sunny who wrote (62)	4/2/1999 10:58:00 AM
From: Dushi	Respond to of 6018

I think that the same applies for CMGI as for Softbank with a little difference: Softbank is a Japanese Company and its quoted in Yen's, a potential currency in danger (as long as recession remains in Japan there seems to be a risk, although from a currency point of view this is (a) small risk for smal non Japanese investors and (b) the Yen has already seen its lowest point is my guess vs. the US $)

To: sunny who wrote (62)	4/2/1999 8:09:00 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6018

Hi Sunny, I am very enthusiastic as indicated by fact that it represents my largest position (twice as large as next biggest position), ahead of MSFT, INTC, AOL, CSCO, CMCSK, ATI, MTC, AMGN, MER, SNE (Sony), MBK (Tokyo Mitsubishi Bank), SAT (Asia Sat), RTRSY (Reuters), ERICY (Ericsson), T, XON, SAP, Bangkok Bank, Thai Farmers Bank, Hong Kong Shanghai Bank, Asia Pulp & Paper, and a hedge position in NEM (Newmont Mining). As you can see, I am very enthusiastic on internet, biotech (for food and drug) and Japan (exporters and domestic). Specifically on Japan, I believe the financial market is at a bottom and in many ways represent better value than the majority of US shares, but there is no particular hurry in piling in. I buy 9984 on the Tokyo market as the bid/ask spread is not large, but I buy SNE and MBK on US market because of the availability of options to lower average purchasing cost. MBK is the Citibank recovery play for Year 2000. SNE is an innovative global company with content, and a potential commanding position on the home network via their Play Station II 128 bit PC and their other appliances. For an alternative view on Japan, checkout www.pei-intl.com. However, I believe that the Yen will further weaken to 140-160 to the US$, which is good for the SNE (immediately) and MBK (in the medium term) as the information is digested by the equity market. But for 9984 with its underlying US portfolio companies, I am thinking that the Yen share price may not immediately reflect the currency gain on the value of its US portfolio companies, and thus for US$ based investor (of which I am one), we will see a temporary down for our 9984 shares. If so, the risk I had in mind is that some of us may make a mistake and sell 9984, thinking that the company is somehow intrinsically less valuable ¨C that would be a mistake. If the Yen weakens, and 9984 US$ price with it, we get another chance at accumulation. I think these thoughts as I do trade 25% of my 9984 holdings actively. So, my RAW OPINION on 9984 is hold what I have, sell my 25%, aggressively accumulate on any weakness if such weakness is caused by (1) USA internet share correction or (2) Yen devaluation. On my wise crack about the 400k investment made by 9984 with MSFT, I am simply happy that my 9984 investment has two big hands helping it along ¡ (1) the intrinsic value of 9984 and, better still, (2) the powerful speculative frenzy that will no doubt propel the share upward in a crescendo of buy orders. I believe in the force of the market to give my the 100 bagger, and the power of management to give me the 10 bagger.

To: sunny who wrote (62)	4/3/1999 7:54:00 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 6018

Additionally, there are several macro points in 9984¡¯s favor. Foreign investors¡¯ feeling concerning the broader Tokyo equity market is that it has bottomed out. These same investors are severely underweight and are afraid of missing out on the inexorable rise that follows the big fall. In 1989, at the peak, Japanese accounted for 41% of global market capitalization. Now the Japanese market cap is 7-8% of global cap. Britain accounts for 9-10% of global market cap. However, Japan¡¯s GDP is 17-18% of global total, Britain is 5-6%. Thus Japan is a buy. Traditionally, Japanese distribution of goods and services is actually quite backward (many cars got sold by door to door salesman), 9984 has lots of room to make improvement (cars by internet); even more so than same type of companies in the US market. Thus 9984 is a buy. At the end of any day, stock price is determined by simple supply and demand and 9984 is the only pure play in Tokyo. Again, the cautionary note. Since January 99, the hedge funds have been borrowing Yen at the pre-October 98 pace. As Yen is borrowed to be exchanged for US$, Yen should weaken and dollar should strengthen. On a smaller scale but more persistent flow, Japanese individuals have been investing overseas, this should also weaken the Yen. However, Yen is not weakening substantially, meaning something is stopping it from weakening ¡ can only be two causes (1) Japan¡¯s trade surplus with the US, (2) repatriation of capital from US back to Japan by Japanese institutions. Yen will eventually go sharply one way or the other, depending on which forces win out. Should Yen go down and 9984 with it (foreign people selling to protect $ based profit) the $ price of 9984 can move quite sharply downward (even though 9984¡¯s dollar based assets will be worth more in Yen terms). This, in my view, would give the true believers a second chance at accumulation. Should Yen go up, Japanese economy will suffer and equity market will react badly, 9984 with the broader market. As 9984 is ultimately driving an overall efficiency improvement in Japan, in such a downward spiraling economy, it should be worth more. Again, 9984 should be accumulated.

To: sunny who wrote (62)	4/5/1999 9:43:00 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 6018

With a couple of days of 5+% upward moves (almost American style) with above average volume, and continuing foreign institutional buying into the Tokyo market generally despite the March 31st fiscal year closing, together with Japanese domestic institutional buying, the signs are good and the stars are aligned for a good month. A partial quote from www.nni.nikkei.co.jp today "Sawada is not alone in seeing the Big Bang as an opportunity to venture into once-sacrosanct financial businesses. Softbank Co., which is involved in a variety of computer-related businesses, has shown strong interest in financial services. Already Japan's leading distributor of personal-computer software, Softbank is eager to sell financial products through the Internet. Last October, Softbank started a joint venture with Sonnet Financial Inc. of the U.S. to provide foreign-exchange trading. It has a joint venture with E*Trade Group Inc., a U.S. online brokerage, that offers Internet-based low-commission securities trading for individuals. Softbank also is preparing to sell automobile insurance and to provide auditing consulting services through the Internet. "No matter what it is, as long as we see chances to connect with online businesses and to expand our business opportunities, Masayoshi Son, the president of Softbank, won't hesitate to step in," a company source said. Unquote.