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Gold/Mining/Energy : American International Petroleum Corp -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (9644)	4/3/1999 10:38:00 AM
From: Ray	Respond to of 11888

Zeev: <<The fact remains that the Kazh fields need a lot of money to develop and somehow, AIPN is not managing to get this money into their coffers. The Asphalt refinery is really a "non issue" as far as I am concerned.>> They have not got the money yet, but this is hardly proof that they will not do so (they have been getting more money for quite a few years now - while looking even more risky than now). They claim a major loan is more-or-less imminent, along with a Kaz gas contract. Whether one should believe these claims or not depends on one's understanding and guesses about AIPN's plans and capabilities. Everyone must make his own decisions; and, given less than adequate information, anyone can be accidentally "right" or "wrong" about their decisions. There is no real basis for anyone criticising others' decisions with respect to AIPN, or plays like AIPN. What I decry is overly enthusiastic or deprecatory statements - and any statement that is not supported by information or cogent analysis (or humor). I think you probably agree. As for the Refinery being a non-issue, would you care to elaborate? The Refinery seems to be ahead of schedule, and I once calculated that, if successful, it would likely add $2 to $5 per share value. And, it appears that it will be able, this year, of earning enough to cover all of AIPN's US operating expenses. Zeev: <<Finally, AIPN may have to do a 10 for 1 reverse split which will make the shares worth about $7/share, will that then be a rational high or low price?>> It is always possible that AIPN will be delisted, but a stock split is even then far from certain. AS for delisting, they have an automatic 90 days to cure - and longer if they can make a good case for reasonably fast recovery. Since such key issues as the refinery success and the Kaz financing will be resolved, or at least made much more clear, before delisting is actually imminent, talk of such is premature (and perhaps manipulative), IMO. RATIONALLY, stock splits, either way, do not change the actual value of a company. However, the market is known to usually have IRRATIONAL responses to stock splits. So, my answer is that the immediate stock value after a split is rational, being just a "scale change"; and any rapid changes thereafter are irrational, since nothing material has happed to or by the company. I know you understand this, so I am puzzled by your question. Zeev: <<In other words we should take the current price and multiply by the number of shares (I have lost count on this) and get something, maybe $40 MM capitalization? Is what AIPN has worth that figure is really the question.>> Yes, that is the question - unless by "what AIPN has" you mean only hard assets (that is, ignoring the not-yet fully defined assets buried in Kaz & Russia and the probable success of the Refinery). If successful, the Refinery alone might then have a hard-asset value of $40 million or more, IMO. For some time yet, AIPN's stock price will be, as it always has been, based on speculation. Nothing at all wrong with this, but an investor should expect, and be ready for, rather goofy ups and downs. IMO, the present stock price is irrationally low - not in keeping with the odds of success and the probable gains. I am not upset with others seeing it differently - and in expressing their views, as long as they are sincere and informative in doing so.