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Technology Stocks : Documentum (DCTM) Software -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Watkins who wrote (481)	4/2/1999 12:32:00 PM
From: PeakClimber	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 600

Michael, Excellent post! What kind of price erosion have you seen over the past few years? I think this may be a case of where the company's growth curve was at the wrong place at the wrong time in history i.e. at the Y2K timeframe. By the time the Y2K-related "pause" goes away, I have a suspicion, as you do, that some of DCTM's (and other DM companies') functionality that drive high-margin license sales will erode in value due to a paradigm shift caused by emerging technologies e.g. Windows2000-based web folders, WebDAV, etc. Let's see how DCTM manages to move their value proposition to other things such as the web apps. Unfortunately for them, the Y2K thing has prevented them from turning their tech.leadership into big money at the very point in time when it is, in every other way, ripe for them to do so. Also I'd be very surprised if a large # of (the smarter!) key engineers don't have their bags packed or have left by this point. Since most engineers in the Bay Area are lured by stock options and DCTM's stock price has not exactly been a rocket in 3 years after IPO, I suspect that most of the engineers who built the technology foundation have vested most of their shares and left. If this is the case, a very treacherous path lies ahead for the company. The area is so full of ".COM" startups and the lure of .COM valuations is so high that DCTM can only attract the mediocre talent that is drawn to somewhat mature companies with a dead stock price for the sake of a secure job. This will make it harder for them to regain tech.leadership and momentum and may hurt them. What do you think?