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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Phoenix who wrote (6990)	4/2/1999 12:17:00 PM
From: Techplayer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21876

Gary, I honestly have not used the Max Pain as a benchmark but recently noted that several posters use it as guidance. Being in both stocks, I decided to look at CSCO. I could see either stock pull back to 100 again, but it would be a surprise to see CSCO pull back to 90 given the visibility, growth, market condition, % of institutional ownership, IP hype (and surrounding facts), etc. The market would need to have a real correction in line with a 10-20% reduction. How much weight is actually put on the max pain by options traders? Has it historically provided an accurate benchmark of stock movements? Since you have already done the analysis, can you say why you see LU's max pain at 95? Thanks, brian

To: The Phoenix who wrote (6990)	4/2/1999 3:43:00 PM
From: Ben Antanaitis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21876

Gary, Sorry, but the calculations posted on my web pages are the correct values. The automated program that now does the Max-Pain&#153 calculation has been operational for over a year, grinding out the Max-Pain Point&#153 graphs week after week and month after month. There is no 'magic bullet' in the LU numbers this month. The Max-Pain Point&#153, whether it is the actual/equivalent ($100 today = $50 post split) expiry price for the stock or not, is currently $100. Note that there are over 13,000 Put contracts open at the $100 strike price. This acts like a huge magnet and creates over $1.3M of value for the put holders for each $1 below $100. Also note that the majority of the calls are in the $100+ strike ranges. Strike Price CALL Vol PUT Vol 50 (.LU DJ) 33 (.LU PJ) 815 55 (.LU DK) 53 (.LU PK) 594 60 (.LU DL) 5094 (.LU PL) 2908 65 (.LU DM) 409 (.LU PM) 3468 70 (.LU DN) 1317 (.LU PN) 3287 75 (.LU DO) 1678 (.LU PO) 5472 80 (.LU DP) 3063 (.LU PP) 5564 85 (.LU DQ) 2652 (.LU PQ) 8411 90 (.LU DR) 3971 (.LU PR) 9905 95 (.LU DS) 2846 (.LU PS) 7709 100 (.LU DT) 13371 (.LU PT) 13192<-Max-Pain Point&#153 105 (.LU DA) 12210 (.LU PA) 8384 110 (.LU DB) 16917 (.LU PB) 2769 115 (.LU DC) 10847 (.LU PC) 1798 120 (.LU DD) 12963 (.LU PD) 1061 125 (.LU DE) 5657 (.LU PE) 133 130 (.LU DF) 7687 (.LU PF) 140 Ben A. ez-pnf.com