To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (41532 ) 4/2/1999 5:07:00 PM From: Gary Burton Respond to
Slider-As I recall, those March compliance numbers in the 70's are misleading because of the 300,000 bpd in dispute pumped by Iran, Adding that back in,it was more like 89%. Then, assume Ven was still short a bit in March before reaching their goal under the NEW admin and it was more like somewhere in the 90's. I quite agree that hardly anyone is going to cheat right away. give them a couple of months at least (g)-----The move down from the recent peak was too steep and without any rally attempt. So,I think it's only the A Wave, not the whole ABC. My 2c is that before we can call an end to the dip, we should first do a B up, fail and then go to a furthur dip for C below Friday's low. So, if we rally Monday am, it will likely fail after say 2-3 points. I still think the C part will get into the 57-62 area, or darn close.----As an aside, I do not at all like the chart formations for SLB and HAL. I realize that many will disagree with me here, but my 2c in just looking at these 2 charts in isolation--without XOI knowledge or crude chart-is that an EW type might well be tempted to worry about new lows on both. Because of collateral info (crude,XOI chart formation), I'm telling myself to suspend my views on the charts of SLB and HAL as simply "file for future reference-is there something wrong with this picure?" In a nutshell, I don't like all the 3 wave ABC's all over the place, both up as well as down. The big picture from these 2 charts looked at in isolation is one of Caution longer term, to my eyes at least....Am waiting to buy VTS back in say the mid 12's etc etc. UFAB looks like the right shdr being put in on a reverse H&S, which would eventually lead to 12ish---still have OIL as it looks higher soon...I bought IO on Wed at 6.31 on a hunch--XOI should be ready to do a B rally Monday..buy on the C dip
