Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Clarke who wrote (6554)	4/2/1999 5:08:00 PM
From: Michael Burry	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78644

Message 8422798

To: James Clarke who wrote (6554)	4/3/1999 2:06:00 PM
From: Bob Rudd	Respond to of 78644

Jim: Regarding the Altman Bankruptcy Predictor Model, go here for info and discussion: Subject 26586 There's lots of discussion and links to research on the subject on that board. [I just got into it recently while I was dancing with Loewen - went in thinking I couldn't go wrong buying at 10% of book..I got out with a profit after the models were all very negative.] The spreadsheet I use also encompasses a version of Altman specifically targeted at service companies and 2 other models. Unfortunately, I had a PC lock-up shortly after running the models so I can't send you a filled-in version. I'm leaving for Hawaii tomorrow, but when I have time I'll fill the sheet and email you a copy. One thing that made a difference was the negative book value, when I first ran it, I neglected to use negative sign and it came out OK...changed sign and bye bye. The Yahoo info is a "Heads up", certainly not the last word. I guess the message is to dig further..get copies of the papers and watch circulation numbers and ad rates. When Buffet refers to owner earnings, as you're very aware, he gets there after investments necessary to maintain and grow the business. It just sounded like this guy was milking these businesses without regard to maintaining the quality necessary to keep customers loyal. The net would be a lesser earnings concern nearterm unless, as a result of shortsighted management, the papers suck so bad they drive a lot of the customers that way. The bigger net impact would be if the investment community uses Amazon binoculars to view earnings. With Amazon, investors are using special binoculars that make earnings that are light years away appear to be large and close, and similarly make internet impacts on bricks & mortar businesses that will take a while to develop appear much closer than they really are. The news delivery business will be profoundly changed by the net...but real impacts are probably 3 to 5 years out...the technology is there, but cultural change proceeds more slowly.