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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stefan who wrote (44775)	4/2/1999 7:52:00 PM
From: Curlton Latts	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

>>I bet you'll have a good spin on this little news too<< It would appear you're here because you do not like MU as an investment. Perhaps you should concentrate on why - - not on me. Good Luck To Each And All Curly ~~~~~~~^^ [6.6] .....> [_]

To: Stefan who wrote (44775)	4/2/1999 8:57:00 PM
From: Thomas G. Busillo	Respond to of 53903

Stefan, the Taiwainese? B-b-but how can this be? I read in Barron's Weekday Trader a few months ago that the Asians were flat on their backs...let me find the exact quote... And with most Asian suppliers still on their backs, Micron will be one of the few manufacturers able to meet demand. Mischou believes that Asian manufacturers won't be back in the game for at least another year or two, probably accelerating consolidation in the industry (the three top DRAM vendors now hold 60% of the market). That will ultimately lead to more stability and predictability -- all positives for Micron. Message 7904952 And since Barron's wrote today what was billed as a ruthlessly honest assessment of their work over the past several months... interactive.wsj.com ...and this made no mention whatsoever of the two MU pieces... ...well, the Asians must still be on their backs! How dare a publication written for professionals in the business report factual information that contradicts the viewpoint of the Dow Jones/CNBC axis! <g> The next thing you know some similarly reality-oriented market research team is going to put out market share data that contradicts the following pearl of wisdom from Barron's: First of all, Asia's misfortune has been Micron's blessing as the company picked up market share over the dead bodies of Asian competitors. Micron's share of the dynamic random access memory (DRAM) chip market has more than tripled, to 20% from 6%, over the last four years, says Claude Hazan, an analyst at C.E. Unterberg, Towbin. Oh, excuse me, I see IDC just happened to have done that: According to statistics released by the International Data Corp. ...Hyundai Electronics Industries, the chip manufacturing arm of Korea's largest conglomerate HEI's market share jumped by an annualized 4.4 percent to 12.4 percent last year, second only to Samsung Electronics, which maintained the top spot with a 20.1 percent market share in the same period. LG Semicon, another Korean DRAM maker, edged up a notch in the rankings to fifth, grabbing an 8.4 percent market share last year, and contributing to the nation's success in becoming the largest DRAM chip supplier in the world. Micron Technology of the United States was third with 9.2 percent, followed by Japan's NEC with 9.1 percent, LG Semicon, Toshiba with 7.9 percent, Siemens with 7.8 percent and Mitsubishi with 6.9 percent. Hitachi with 6.5 percent and Fujitsu with 5.9 percent rounded out the top ten. techstocks.com And let's also give Barron's a round of applause for the following: But Micron's fans on Wall Street are sticking to their guns. Three minor points. A) BFD. If they were not sticking to their guns, they wouldn't be fans. B) The "fan" herd was noticeably thinned 8 days after publication when Goldman Sachs removed MU from its recommended list and Nations Bank Montogmery removed it from its focus list on the same day. NBM subsequently cut the stock to a hold the following week. C) Where did Barron's mention that CEO Steve Appleton, CFO Will Stover, Jr., VP of IR Kip Bedard, and several other insiders sold in mid-January? They didn't. It's strange because as we all know, investors who've "bought on the dips" in the technology sector in recent years haven't lived to regret it. Well, considering that the price has declined roughly 30% from where those insiders were selling, the converse would also appear to be presently true - insiders who sell near the peaks haven't lived to regret it. The company also stands to benefit from a promising new high-end memory technology called Rambus, which is used in some servers, PCs and notebooks. (Intel took a 6 percent stake in Micron for research on Rambus.) Dell and Compaq Computer, in fact, plan to ship computers with Rambus DRAMs by year's end. Two more minor points: A) Intel did what for what? "Research on Rambus". B) This is MU's strategy? Or do they seem to be pushing a competing design? Barron's is certainly free to opine that there is upside potential in MU (and considering the stock's tanked 20% since their initial piece, I guess there's even more upside now)... ...but how did they serve their readers by that particular exercise in junk journalism? Good trading, Tom

To: Stefan who wrote (44775)	4/2/1999 11:07:00 PM
From: Carl R.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

To address your points: MU's roadmap is that they are currently doing 85% of production at .21µ, with 15% of wafer starts at .18µ. Their goal is to be 100% at .18µ by the end of the year. I have not heard of any plans for 300mm by MU. I do not know when MU plans to begin production at 256mb, or if they plan to produce 128mb chips. I suspect it depends on pricing and estimated profit margins. Larger wafers are a big cost savings especially when dealing with big dies. Imagine if you were putting one big square die on a round wafer - the amount of wasted silicon would be huge. On the other hand, the smaller the die, the better use you make of all the silicon, and the less cost savings for going to a larger die. Part of the reason that 300mm has taken off so slowly is the rapid transition to smaller geometries in the last several years which has kept the dies small, and has kept 300mm cost prohibitive. Eventually 300mm will be necessary, but I'm not sure if this will be at 256mb or 1gb. I lean towards the later. From your article on Tiawan: Winbond - currently making 64mb chips, geometry unknown, pilot runs of 128mb chips at .17µ in Q3 1999 Nan Ya - currently making 16mb chips at .28µ, moving to 2/3 64mb chips at .20µ and .175µ with the remaining 1/3 still at .28µ by the end of 1999 Winbond is clearly not far behind, but they are just doing the production work for Toshiba. They appear to be about 6-9 months behind MU, who is already doing pilot runs at .18µ, and have been doing so for some time. Six months is a good lead for MU, but not insurmountable. Nan Ya looks like they are in deep trouble, if you ask me. They lost big bucks last year, and will almost certainly lose big bucks again this year now that memory prices have fallen again. They are making 16mb (buggy whips) at .28µ and selling them against MU who is making them at .21µ. Guess who can make them for less? Even by the end of the year they won't be where MU is today. It looks to me like Nan Ya should suffer the fate that bears have long been forecasting for MU. Bears, take an honest look at Nan Ya, and pretend for a moment that they are MU, and just think what you'd say about them. 2 generations behind on chips (Samsung is at 256mb, Nan Ya is at 16mb), 2-3 generations behind on geometries (They are at .28µ, the leaders are working on .18µ). Heck, Nan Ya even makes TI's DRAM production look state of the art. <G> ... they are fore an expansive surprise ---- Excuse me???? Carl