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Strategies & Market Trends : Bankruptcy Predictor Model -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Razorbak who wrote (277)	4/3/1999 2:03:00 AM
From: Q.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 477

Razor, HMAR is interesting because they did the opposite of what most companies getting a going concern qualification would do. They issued a PR Newswire that trumpeted this misfortune. biz.yahoo.com Now that's disclosure!

To: Razorbak who wrote (277)	5/19/1999 12:25:00 AM
From: Razorbak	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 477

Hvide Marine Inc. (NASDAQ:HMAR), Rev. 2 ------------------------------------------------------- Analysis: Altman Bankruptcy Predictor Company Name: Hvide Marine Inc. Ticker Symbol: NASDAQ:HMAR Date of Analysis: 5/18/99 Conducted by: Samuel M. Williams Vice President Turnaround & Crisis Management, Inc. Two Mid America Plaza, Suite 714 Oakbrook Terrace, IL 60181 Tel: 630-990-9718 Fax: 630-990-9693 E-mail: sam@turnrnd.com turnrnd.com ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Financial Summary, US$ Millions (1) 9/30/98Q 12/31/98A 03/31/99Q ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Working Capital, WC 41.56 (205.03) (208.67) Retained Earnings, RE 49.28 51.20 42.13 Earnings B4 Interest & Taxes, EBIT 88.50 84.96 8.86 Market Value of Equity, MVE 109.90 77.10 66.75 Book Value of Tot. Liab., BVTL 707.93 735.18 737.68 Total Sales, TS 363.37 401.91 328.85 Total Assets, TA 1,076.37 1,108.83 1,107.38 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Altman's Financial Ratios 9/30/98Q 12/31/98A 03/31/99Q ------------------------------------------------------------------------- X1 = WC/TA 0.04 (0.18) (0.19) X2 = RE/TA 0.05 0.05 0.04 X3 = EBIT/TA 0.08 0.08 0.01 X4 = MVE/BVTL 0.16 0.10 0.09 X5 = TS/TA 0.34 0.36 0.30 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bankruptcy Predictor Index, Z (2) 0.81 0.52 0.20 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Company Health Assessment (3,4,5) Near Near Near Death Death Death ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Footnotes: ---------- 1. Data obtained from the 9/30/98 10-Q, the 12/31/97 10-K, the 9/30/97 10-Q, the 12/31/98 10-K, and the 3/31/99 10-Q. MVE of the common shares (Classes A & B) was valued at $7.188/share for both classes on 9/30/98, $5.00/share for both classes on 12/31/98, and $4.31/share for both classes classes on 3/31/99. EBIT and TS are annual figures for the 10-K, and quarterly figures for the 10-Qs multiplied times four for an annualized basis. 2. Bankruptcy Predictor Index: Z = (1.2X1)+(1.4X2)+(3.3X3)+(0.6X4)+(1.0*X5) 3. Company Health Assessment: Z > 3.0 = Strong 1.8 < Z < 3.0 = In Danger Z < 1.8 = Near Death 4. The Altman Bankruptcy Predictor is widely used in the turnaround industry to assess and predict a company's short-term survival prospects. The model is named after the renowned Edward I. Altman, Max L. Heine Professor of Finance at New York University's Stern School of Business, who published the initial research back in 1968. According to one scholarly journal, Altman's Bankruptcy Predictor has proven consistently accurate over the period of time since its development. The original samples in Altman's research displayed accuracy of 95 percent based on data from approximately one year prior to failure. The accuracy dropped to 72 percent based on two-year data. Subsequent tests on firms that have gone bankrupt since 1968 have shown an accuracy level of 82 to 85 percent. 5. CAUTION!!! This analysis should only be used as an analytical tool. While it can greatly assist an investor or stakeholder in identifying weak companies for further investigation, it should not be used to the exclusion of other types of experienced and informed personal evaluation techniques. Also, please remember that, when using the Bankruptcy Predictor Model, the recent trend is the most important indicator of future success or failure since companies' fortunes rarely turn on a dime.