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Technology Stocks : Ultratech Stepper -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alan Bell who wrote (3114)	4/2/1999 9:33:00 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3696

Kirk, After last Quarterly Earnings Report: Cash $6.93 Working Capital $7.89 Book $9.96 Alan, UTEK has been a trailing edge niche player. The downturn has hurt their sales more than most because of this. The future has prospects of increased business and less competition in the trailing edge area and some new leading edge products, i.e. ebeam, P-GILD, and DUV (with possibly EUV). The uncertainty of all of these greatly exceeds what is faced by market leaders and niche leaders in the industry. UTEK requires a faith that management and a diversified product portfolio will succeed in a business upturn. Their track record during the last upturn supports that faith, and the numbers above point to the relatively low risk required. It is safer to wait for concrete developments which support future success, but the price usually leads such public knowledge by enough to greatly diminish return. Cary

To: Alan Bell who wrote (3114)	4/2/1999 10:34:00 PM
From: Demosthenes	Respond to of 3696

Alan, <<I really hope that this thread isn't about who is right or wrong a year from now but rather about using its collective wisdom to better fundamentally understand a stock more thoroughly than the street does and to use this information to make profitable personal decisions.>> My previous comments were re nothing about who is right but rather WHAT is right so that we may all LEARN from the decisions we are making now. The only way a personality and identity comes into the picture is through posting. To have posts we must have posters--who are people--who will probably be right or wrong or in between 1 year from now. <<After putting much energy into this stock over the past few years, I would like to find bullish arguments that overcome bearish emotion.>> Opinions and feelings re UTEK are getting stronger lately and we all know it's mostly pessimism. I bot first in 9/96 for 16--and still hold those shares. I know how you feel. There was a lot of volume last month and I think there were a lot of sellers. I think most of the selling is over--barring catastrophic news. And yet bad news can be good. Sometimes a stock can be so oversold that even bad news is enough for a pop in price. One thing most of us can agree on is that investor sentiment amost always over reacts. Many times great news on a highly favored stock is not great enough and the stock sells off. And many times bad news on a hated stock is not bad enough and it goes up. A favored stock can only hold so much good news before it fails and it gets hammered. Eventually the good news can't keep up with expectations. The bad news kills the euphoria and begins to send sentiment down. Sentiment often over reacts and takes the stock far below what is reasonable. Investors at this point see no future in the company. Meanwhile the company chugs along and low and behold something good happens. Bearishness begins to dissolve and investors see tremendous value. Ford in the early 90's was declared toast because of the plethora of cheap, better made imports. And then a huge loss of almost $2.50 one year took them down for the count and the bears roared. And what happened? We all knew Chrysler was done when it approached chapter 11. What kind of fool would buy in at that time? In 93 when Hilary and her national health care program was full steam in the news and pharmacueticals were killed everyone knew that industry would change forever. And then came the stories about these companies not having any promising drugs in the pipeline anyway and they went down further. What fool would by a stock that went down in that environment? Everyone has feelings but the ones who can overcome them in the market during tough times can make a fortune. I surprised myself by actually being able to push the buy button hard on several companies last fall when it was wall to wall panic. I did everything from cry to scream. Buying then went against every feeling I had. I bot NVLS at 25 and watched go to 21. "WHAT A FOOL I AM! I JUST LOST 20% OF MY MONEY AND IT'S PROBABLY GOING ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 5!" Unfortunately, at the time, for my mental health I also bot huge chunks of AMAT TER and KLAC and watched them go down 20%. I couldnt eat and started to slip into depression. (Is this honest enough?) And since then I haven't sold 1 share of anything. I am my own lab rat when it comes to investor sentiment. I never thought I would act the way I did. UTEK has problems that in my opinion are being over reacted to. Rumors are all over: "PLAB has given up on V2000." "P-Gild won't work." "UTEK can't compete." Drivel is arriving by the truckload. All of this is either false or yet to be decided. UTEK bears control the stock right now. Let's see how far they run and let's see if we will hunt them down for sport. Ever, D