To: Bull RidaH who wrote (9666 ) 4/3/1999 8:56:00 PM From: Jack Luo Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 99985
David, Excellent charting in e-wave section. And good-looking face too, I am wondering if any gal read this thread? <g> One comment and one question on your SPX e-wave charts: Agreed with your reading on wave 1 to wave 3, but not the 2nd flat correction. My understanding is that a bull market flat correction should be a (low) -> b (high) -> c (low). The way that you marked the 2nd flat correction makes it become a bear market flat correction which is a (high) -> b (low) -> c(high) wave pattern. Correct me if I am wrong. I agree with you on the large intervening A-B-C flat (3-3-5) correction. Here is my question: Is it possible that wave 5 is already completed on March 31 when the Market rallied and SPX rushed to 1313 during the opening. Since it failed to break 3/18 all time high, how about we call it "Bull Market Failure," an Elliott failure pattern when wave 5 failed to exceed the top of wave 3. Notice that wave B can be considered as a part of wave 3 since wave 3 usually is the longest of five waves. In the 2-week SPX chart, wave 5 breaks down into the required five waves and its corresponding a-b-c corrective phase is also completed. If the above reasoning holds, your wave 2 (pink color) could actually be a part of wave A of the larger e-wave pattern started from last Oct low. I do not feel very convinced that this is the case because a short time length and small magnitude of wave 5, compared with wave 1. Therefore, a continuation of wave 5 is very likely as you pointed out in the 2-week chart. According to the symmetrical triangle in the 2-week chart, we shall find out as soon as on Monday. Given the "not-too-bad" March job and payroll report, SPX should break the top declining line and move out of the symmetrical triangle with a heavy volume. However, if it doesn't break out, it may be in trouble. The direction of the overall market is getting more and more interesting now. I am spending more time to read this thread. A lots of good posts and analysis here. Again, thanks for your and others' effort to post these charts. Keep the good stuff coming! BTW, you should change your handle to Bull King and yield the Bear King crown to Bobby. <g> Jack