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Technology Stocks : LSI Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Charles Tutt who wrote (17659)	4/3/1999 9:46:00 AM
From: patrick tang	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25814

To cut to the point - yes. Not supposed to happen, but in the real world, happens everyday. I do take that into account and try to allow for that when I trade. Case in point, a year ago I knew that ALSC's Q1 results depended on how much video DRAMS they did in the quarter, having assumed that they shrunk the die to 0.35um and so can make boat loads at $2.00 ASP. I called into IR and basically got no answers. IR was very friendly and all, returned my call promptly too. Just would not give me any answers at all. Totally no help (in hind sight another reason to stay away from the stock?) Lehman/Gumport 2 days before Q1 earnings were announced came out with public recommendation (7 days had elapsed between the time they made this public and the time they give reports to their own customers, by the way) that ALSC will not do good because their video DRAMs were made with 0.6um! Once I saw that, I knew there was no hope. The stock had spiked up to $9.00 on anticipation of good earnings and that's where I sold it the morning before earnings at a fair 20% gains. The thing dropped all the way the $2/3 pronto after earnings. The analysts are not that much smarter. Gumport made his called based on having seen the 'books' - total no brainer. As such, the analysts short term predictions are much better than ours. Intermediate or longer terms, they are about the same. Perhaps slightly better because they are usually less emotionally involved in the stocks than we are and thus more objectively. But that is balanced out by people who actually work in the industry and thus have better experiences and insights, like me saying last Oct that layoff and starting Gresham was the best thing that LSI could have put down on their Q report that everybody took for the reasons to beat down the stock price for. patrick