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Strategies & Market Trends : HONG KONG -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ron Bower who wrote (2800)	4/3/1999 10:55:00 AM
From: Ramsey Su	Respond to of 2951

Ron, on the Asian Forum, I was accused of being the perma-bear and don't see any positive scenario. I referenced an article written by Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley last year. Unfortunately, it is a pdf file and not readily linkable (at least for the tech challenged like me) so I don't think anyone read it. Basically Stephen Roach talked about this so call "Anglo-Saxon" plan that brought the US out of recession. Massive cost cutting and reforms turned corp USA into the lean mean machine. With all those laid off, deregulation and investment in high tech created new opportunities, bringing forth the properity of today. I think this plan could work for Japan and if Japan recovers, Asia will follow. However, Japan has not done much in that direction. The weaker corporations are failing and excess capacity absorbed by reduction or merger of competitors. What are these displaced workers going to do? The bank problem is not going to be solved until they start liquidation bad debt and bad assets at current market value, just like the RTC. When I see employment increasing and bank assets sales, then I think the bottom is at hand. Before that happens, there should be one more big dip in Asia. Ramsey