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Strategies & Market Trends : HONG KONG -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (2805)	4/6/1999 1:05:00 PM
From: Tom	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2951

Ramsey, I noted the personal caution you recently expressed about trading w/ East Asian indices at current levels. I believe we're both waiting for the same event; that one last breakdown which will provide the best entry point. Seems a bit odd too that buying is considered by many as speculative at these levels. I don't think they will be considered speculative the next time around. Example: I see the speculating in Singapore's electronics sector as way ahead of itself. Flextech comes-up with some better than expected numbers so we'll drive the whole group up. I don't buy it. I've gone w/ the S&P puts. Will move back into SEAsia and South America after the breakdown. There should be some attractive prospects in the emerging markets, especially those that have done some of the required financial restructuring. And we won't have another El Nino staring us in the face. By the way, I haven't seen it mentioned anywhere, but I don't see inflation in the wake of an El Nino. Had to drop-out of my commodities positions with what little has been granted by the recent oil pact and the contingent speculating. Must put myself solidly in the deflationary camp. The recent rise reported in the number of shoppers frequenting Hong Kong retailers surely is not for a better economic forecast or a lift in individual incomes. The latest survey of business sentiment was better this time. A little bit of that bleeding into the consumer. But alot more to do with product pricing, I'd guess. Been noting the movement of some specific shares in several different markets, like Flextech, but believe we'll have a better opportunity soon. It will be difficult, I suppose, for some investors and funds to let go of these shares. But let go they must! <g> Your comments appreciated, as usual. -----