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Strategies & Market Trends : Bankruptcy Predictor Model -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: semi_infinite who wrote (295)	4/3/1999 1:06:00 PM
From: Razorbak	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 477

AIPN - Comments <<Both TA and EBIT fluctuate with crude prices and subject to a high level of uncertainty by themselves -- BOEG reserves form basis for TA I presume. Perhaps posing the equation as a sensitivity equation would be better. That way, you can see what happens as crude prices change and understand the impact of uncertainty in reserves.>> Ray: AIPN is currently producing neither crude oil nor natural gas, so your point is effectively moot. AIPN is currently a net importer of crude which is used as feedstock for its asphalt refinery, therefore when crude prices rise, AIPN gets pinched between increasing raw material costs and lagging product margins. <<BTW - I think the gas is stranded because pipeline capacity is limited and oil transport will take precedence.>> I think we agree on this point. Just my opinion, of course. Razor

To: semi_infinite who wrote (295)	4/3/1999 2:35:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 477

Ray, I think that the Altman system tries to derive a measure of future survivability of a company based on past history and the way this past history affects a company balance sheet and income statement. It cannot predict future "bonanza", but it does take into account that exploiting such a bonanza requires financial resources. Since I do not know how to predict a future bonanza either, I use the Altman relationships as part of an evaluation model that also includes technical analysis (very negative for AIPN right now) and to some extent an assessment of the potential for a future "bonanza". I look at a number of these all the time and right now, for instance, I prefer even HEC (well for a short time until the nature of future financing is evident). AIPN was also had a very bad case of a floorless issue which I am not sure if it fully played itself out. Zeev