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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (9715)	4/3/1999 4:36:00 PM
From: Monty Lenard	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Lee, the problem is not that you have lost contact with the market .... the problem is the market has lost contact with reality. Since a few of us still live in the real world it becomes confusing. <g> Monty

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (9715)	4/3/1999 5:42:00 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

The big cap stocks won't get dumped till the end of the bear run. The OTC Prime (^OTX) didn't get trashed until the last 2 weeks of August after the Russian market collapse and the hedge funds having to liquidate stocks. Interest stat for last week: **CUMULATIVE 1ST QTR U.S. EARNINGS SURPRISES AS OF MARCH 29 POS/ % NEG/% ON TGT/% S&P 500 28 17/61% 5/18% 6/21% I/B/E/S Universe 115 60/52% 33/29% 22/19% $500 mln or less 58 26/45% 23/40% 9/16% $500 mln - $1 bln 14 9/64% 4/29% 1/07% $1 bln or more 43 25/58% 6/14% 12/28% Less than half the small cap stocks that reported last week had positive earnings surprises. The largest caps had the fewest negative earnings surprises.

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (9715)	4/3/1999 6:04:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Lee, >>>> This market has scizophrenia and I have to admit I am totally lost now. The rising bond rate, oil prices, labor force and A/D ratio tell me this is it, it is over yet the futures? Some of my favorite stocks that are sound growth companies that haven't missed earnings or had expectations reduced etc have gone from over valued to seriously undervalued. My 35% growth favorite closed Thursday with a PE ratio of 14. Meanwhile the high flyers went higher. I have a chart of the advances and the declines seperatly on all the exchanges. They are clear in their trends and they are not in the bullish direction. I am now following this market as a hobby only since I can't seem to find anything trading at near it's real worth. If it is a bargain, it becomes more of a bargain the next week. If it is over priced, it gets more over priced the next week.<<<< Very good post. You know exactly what this market is doing and where its going with the a lesser number of stocks going up and an increasing number of stocks going down. I hear often that bullish comments that the bears have been wrong for so long since they went to cash early. That is true, but there are definitely times when it is best to go to cash. Last summer was one of them, for a few months. The majority are now expressing some sort of caution, but few are acting. No one knows for sure when the market will pull back; there are times of higher probability of a pullback but no one knows 100%. Frankly speaking, I feel that being in cash right now is the way to go in light of the uncertainee in the market. You wont lose money, you may just lose the potential, but again you won't lose. Im in some PUTs right now and I may lose if I am wrong about a pullback from now until JULY, and those playing calls may lose, but you wont since you are in cash. Just using simple logic, when things are so uncertain and market acting abnormal - the best is cash. I dont want to be mis-understood, Im not saying that the market cant go up and Im not saying that it wont pull back either - Im saying that there are times when its best to be in cash, and those are times when there is strong uncertaintee, like right now. Hey, the shorts may lose money and the longs may lose money, but those in cash cant lose money. I hear so often from many that they lost money because they didnt buy a certain stock which ran up 50-100%. I guess this long bull market has brainwashed many into thinking and believing that. There are times to take risks and there are times to be prudent. Seeya

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (9715)	4/3/1999 6:21:00 PM
From: HairBall	Respond to of 99985

L3: At major market turns, the Market will be the most confusing...<g> You have a better handle than most! Regards, LG

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (9715)	4/3/1999 11:47:00 PM
From: Digitom	Respond to of 99985

Lee, so refreshing to hear your ventage. I have adulterated my investment philosophy more than once in recent years in order to justify staying in the market. It was this newfound uncertainty that sent me scrambling for a new approach to anticipating market moves. TA is one corner of the investment community in which I had always sported a smug disdain. However, I couldn't deny the consistently accurate calls from the TA crowd on the threads that I monitored. This recognition has been met on my part by a conversion of principles, followed by a face-first plunge into devouring everything that I can find to read on the subject (TA), ultimately leading me to threads such as this. My humble theory after much cramming would go as such... Technical Analysis is a very legitimate method of anticipating stock and market direction. Although it is certainly not new, it is much more widely used than ever before, coinciding with a mega-surge of online marketheads, as well as computerized buy-sell programs. The compounding result being that momentum carries much more weight than ever before, gradually forcing out any stock that disappoints even once, or even hints of disappointment. This would help to explain the advance/decline weakness, as well as to provide some light on why I no longer seem to experience any luck on my many bottom-fishing exploits. Once a stock goes down in this market, it rarely stops, no matter what the growth rate. LizAnn Saunders said last week that there are record amounts of money on the sidelines, no where else to go. Bonds not attractive. Rest of the world in dumper. Rise in Internet stocks creating doubt in otherwise staid investors, who don't want to be left out. Do you think that the technicians are just buying and selling to each other? Whereby, in the process of elimination, more companies stock prices fall through crucial support lines, triggering that dreaded letter of notice stating: Hey buddy, you ain't on the list no more! This process, culminating in true 'survival of the most--technically-- fit' fashion, until only AOL and MZON remain in the list of advancers. What think? tw