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Non-Tech : Charles Schwab (SCH) -- A tech-stock profile? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: yard_man who wrote (359)4/3/1999 7:16:00 PM
From: Peter Goss  Respond to of 1390
 
I think the reversal will come when the great "news" on earnings and growth is released - then recognized and valued. The problem is that the herd in SCH or any stock that is overpriced are such firm believers that they have stopped evaluating anything except stock splits. DELL is a good example of this - SCH will come down when the professionals see the "news" of the next quarter or so and sell into it. The crowd will still buy the story for a while, until buying the dips has left them with an average price of about $70 and the stock is at $40. Again, see the Dell cult for examples.

I was way early in trying to define the top in SCH. The power of no analysis is one that is difficult to fight in this market. Those who do analyze are crushed while the mob is rewarded for their devotion. I do think that is in the process of changing. We will see.

good investing,

Peter



To: yard_man who wrote (359)4/4/1999 12:36:00 AM
From: Mike Gordon  Respond to of 1390
 
As both a short and long term investor in SCH, I'll share my thoughts;

"How vulnerable is SCH now to such a reversal?"
SCH is just as vulnerable as any other issue in such a reversal. SCH is perceived as both a brokerage and an Internet play. This unique mixture will give SCH improved resiliency during recoveries. Like many other issues swept up in this Internet craze, the PE is too high. However, for long term growth, would you put your money into MER or SCH?

"Is there really a cause for such a reversal -- or is the real cause the initial panic to the upside itself?"

During a four-day period March 19 - 26, SCH had a high of 92 and a low of 80. I believe the sell off to 80 was a symptom of an initial 'panic to the upside'. Note the recovery after March 26. A quick review of call premiums suggests that call buyers believe SCH is headed higher. However, the PE of 111 will bring SCH down if this market corrects.