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Gold/Mining/Energy : American International Petroleum Corp -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DRRISK who wrote (9664)	4/3/1999 7:29:00 PM
From: Razorbak	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11888

Sentiment, Dilution Effect, & JV Potential <<You are ignoring the reality that OIL came from $10./bbl not less then three-six months ago and that in 97 it was coming from $25/bbl a big difference in sentiment.>> Perhaps that's an important factor to consider for a company generating positive cash flow from a producing concession, but it's immaterial for a non-producing company IMHO. The SEC NPV(10) calculation for the value of the reserves is based upon the price of oil or gas at the time of the analysis. My analysis looked at the time period in question: late 1997 to today. <<AIPN traded at $6-$7/ share for a only a few days. The more accurate share price to calculate the effect of dilution is $4.00 which would give you $1.48/share which is very close to where Palladin would be allowed to begin their staged conversion prior to 8/99.>> Not according to my calculator. (48.3/66.2) X $4/share = $2.91/share, which is still 360% of the closing price on Thursday. <<A JV for OIL would be a whole lot easier at $20/bbl then at $16-17/bbl. Where we have traded for only the past month post OPEC reduction.>> Nevertheless, AIPN had plenty of time to do a JV with potential partners in late 1997/early 1998, well before the oil price dropped to uneconomic levels, but failed to find one other party willing to cut a deal acceptable to both parties. <<I believe that the company has behaved pragmatically but not inspirationally and that is a reality of history not my speculation.>> I disagree. <<If we had drilled Columbia or Peru we would be toast.>> I agree. <<Do you have similar companies in the OIL sector like AIPN that you would recommend or own?>> Like AIPN? No. Hope this helps. Just my honest opinion, of course. Razor