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Technology Stocks : All About Sun Microsystems -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Charles Tutt who wrote (15166)	4/5/1999 5:11:00 PM
From: Alok Sinha	Respond to of 64865

You wrote: I disagree with the theater analogy. There never has to come a time when everybody leaves, and new people can come in all the time. There's no issue of being "last out." This is not really relevant ot SUNW, but the current mania and hyperbole surrounding net stocks certainly lends credence to the greater fool theory. If you recall, in the Ponzi scheme everybody except the investors at the top of the pyramid made out like bandits. The analogy to people trying to exit the theater is quite mild actually to the momentum selling (if and when it starts). You don't have to look beyond last October (for a recent illustration). October 1987 was probably a more extreme situation. These remarks are not directed at SUNW, but stocks in general. Valuations of SUN are probably reasonable (I wouldn't buy it, but I am not bailing out either) given its promise. One reason the % appreciation since last Sep - Oct appear excessive is the deeply discounted levels SUN has been selling at for the last few years. You know how it has been, as you have posted here consistently. SUN is just catching up with under-performance. It is the speculative buying in large cap and net stocks that troubles me. From 50%, the capital appreciation has resulted in about 80% of my portfolio being in big cap / tech stocks. Small stocks are flat or down. I have no clue when the price catches with value, but I do know that all manaias come to an end (both buying and selling). I also know that 2-3% movements in mature markets (given the risks implied) are unreal. Hong Kong and Korea maybe. Not US . Regards Alok