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Technology Stocks : Audio and Radio on the Internet- NAVR -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: zurdo who wrote (13060)	4/3/1999 10:29:00 PM
From: RockyBalboa	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 27722

I do not belong to a group here, and the damage has been done by 15.2 Million shares issued in the private placement AND subsequent option related trades. Long or short, i trade between 500 and 2000 shares of Navarre. My first NAVR buy was 500 at 4 5/8, FYI. end of message. C. The word from the motley fools (dated but not outdated, alse see the positive facts) fnews.yahoo.com HOW COULD YOU HAVE SEEN IT COMING? Some companies Navarre learn. In May, the company was running low on funds so it issued a $20 million private placement. The fact that it was dilutive would be an understatement. The deal consisted of 7.6 million shares issued at $2 5/8 and 7.6 million warrants exercisable at $3 1/2. The offering might have seemed fathomable earlier in the year when the stock was trading barely above two bucks a share. However, since the shares had hit $12 3/4 the month before, Navarre's timing couldn't have been worse. The logical solution, which was to produce working capital by spinning off the pure Internet glitz of NetRadio, did not occur to the company until late July. Too little, too late. By then the damage was done and the dilution had flooded the stock. The placement buyers, which included more than a dozen individual investors, pension funds, and even American Gramophone (a long-time supplier to Navarre), simply had one restriction before cashing in on their bounty -- they had to wait until the end of June to begin selling off their respective stakes. So, just nine days into July, when news that Barnes & Noble's website would begin doing what the brick and mortar stores were already doing, the run-up into the pre-teens was destined to falter. With the offering shares having appreciated many times over, it was clear that the selling would kill off any rally. The placement shares and warrants represented twice as many as all of the shares outstanding at the time. Any fundamental improvements -- and there would be plenty for Navarre -- would be greeted like a salmon trying to swim upstream as the deluge rained down. WHERE TO FROM HERE? Over time, history may forgive and forget. With every passing day it seems that there will be less of the private placement players fueling that pent-up selling demand. That's a good thing because beyond the ill-advised offering there is little not to like in Navarre. The company turned a profit last quarter, and this despite the startup costs in setting up CDPoint and SoftwarePoint, which were launched two weeks apart in the month of June. Navarre calls the strategy "c-commerce," the "c" standing for content-enabled. Drawing 20 million page hits a month and 3 million audio listens, the company has the perfect magnet to draw music fans to consider buying the selections they are hearing directly from Navarre. On July 27, the company announced that it would be spinning off NetRadio, and coming on the heels of the successful debut of Broadcast.com (Nasdaq:BCST - news) , demand should be healthy for the popular website. It's a shame that the private placement has sandbagged the stock's performance. Who knows how high the stock would be trading today if the 7.6 million shares and 7.6 million warrants at rock bottom conversion prices had never come about -- certainly higher than the $20 million in proceeds generated from the deal.

To: zurdo who wrote (13060)	4/3/1999 10:46:00 PM
From: Annette	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 27722

Kind of makes you WONDER *What* the management does at NAVR...Do they spend their days wondering when to sell their stock options? I say give them some golf clubs and send the old coots out to play golf, and not "Mr. BIG CEO of a music distributor" The best thing would be for the company to be bought out...and we all know alot of that is going around these days!! ;-)

To: zurdo who wrote (13060)	4/3/1999 11:08:00 PM
From: Mad2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 27722

Zurdo you wrote >Anthony and your group did most of the damage to the IPO filing price climb....You people shorted a lot more than 150K shares in my opinion...< That's crazy! The bulk of the selloff following the S-1 filing was done by longs, MM's and other smart traders who understood the stock would drop for the weeks following the filing only to regain momentum. The selloff on the news of the the filing was done by the same buyers that are comming back into NAVR now that the spin is closer. It's nothing personal, its just a trade. Zurdo, I hope this thing goes into orbit, however the dilution created by NAVR's financing will depress it's prospects(the point of C's posts). None the less NAVR will be no different than DBCC/MKTW, UIHIA/UPCOY and others. It will go up and than it will go down, those mentioned peaked 3-4 days ahead of the spin. Such talk of evil short sellers bla, bla, bla takes the focus off of what should be discussed and that is when to bail out. I remember reading garbage from poster ztech on the DBCC thread about how DBCC was worth over $40/share which is where it was at the time (now at 15/share). NAVR will get to a price dictated by supply and demand prior to the spin. I don't know what that price will be but if history is a guide the peak will hit 3-4 days ahead of ipo after which NAVR will begin to peter out. This will happen because many holders in NAVR will be in this thing for the run up caused by the hype of the spin trying to exit near the top. When they (me included) head for the exits the price drops. Gotta becarefull about falling for these net stocks, business model isn't proven, barriers to entry are low and they aren't makin any dough. Not the kind of stuff that you want to buy and get your certificates and lock them up. Yet they are a lot of fun to play and profitable at that (for now anyway!) Regards, Mad2