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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gdichaz who wrote (995)	4/3/1999 11:18:00 PM
From: chaz	Respond to of 54805

Chaz here....not lost, not gone, just otherwise occupied past few days. It's nice to be missed. Been pondering just the same, and have a few opinions to offer if anyone cares to hear them. First, I'm out of the box makers, and I think INTC and Softie maybe have to go as well. It's becoming a low-margin business fellows and ladies, and the penetrations are getting pretty high (40% of homes I read somewhere). And is there anyone who will pay as much for their next system as they did for their last? I've had uM systems since 1978, and about every two-three years, I've gotten new for about what I paid previously. Next time will be different. When the 100mhz box goes, I'll not replace the printer, monitor, or wireless mouse, or speakers. They're still state-of-the-art. No boxmaker will make a margin from me on those next time. And it's been a loooong while since I've bought a new ap software. Sorry softie. Upgrades maybe, but I don't see a new gotta-have ap in the wings for me. Sixty, sixty-five percent of the box business has been to business, and the rest to consumers. Business users usually added some sort of specific application software...essentially a desktop utility like DTP, WP, Spreadsheet, etc. Consumers didn't have much of that except perhaps games, again, a desktop utility. But the killer ap, for consumers, is the internet, at least that's how I see it. And in some slices of business, too. Now we're not talking software, folks. We're talkin' content! And people will pay for content, like they bought cable for the TV. I've probably loaded $3,000 worth of software on my machine, but my purchase of I-Net services just keeps on going every month. In the day of a sub-$1G system, purchase of I-Net content (including access fees) will probably equal that for many consumers in two or fewer years. As the system prices drop, as I'm sure they will, the balance will tip to collateral spending. AOL, GNET, ATHM, NTAP. I like the Q very much. Haven't pulled the trigger yet, but it hasn't run away from me yet. Or from any of us for that matter. Fiber Optic (Yeah, man!) I need to do some dd and quick. Used to think the next newtork goodies would be home networking. Nah. Gonna be net phone. Wait'll business gets it's mitts on that!

To: gdichaz who wrote (995)	4/4/1999 11:38:00 AM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Just don't care much for tight rules - too limiting to real world judgement.. Chaz, the reason we like this book is that it does define its terms. This gives us a criteria for sorting companies. If you don't like the criteria and don't want to use it, fine. But then you will not be able to communicate effectively with the people on this board who do use it. Using this criteria made it very easier for me to figure out that I should dump Dell and keep Cisco when they both leveled out this year. Using this criteria makes it a lot easier for me to make a large investment in QCOM. Is the criteria a perfect solution for investing? Of course not! It is a tool, and ,like all tools, is only as good as the person using it.