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Technology Stocks : Audio and Radio on the Internet- NAVR -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Annette who wrote (13067)	4/3/1999 11:32:00 PM
From: Robert Cohen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27722

Schwab to no longer allow NAVR in a margin account. Robert

To: Annette who wrote (13067)	4/4/1999 11:22:00 AM
From: AJ Berger	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27722

Deal Making Abilities Determine Buyouts NAVR's rise was a "gimmee" after the Broadcast.Com stockswap with Yahoo finally became public, but consider a few things. NAVR's continued bungling of the NetRadio IPO greatly reduces my faith in their deal making ability. I think BCST and YHOO worked out a deal as they had a good synergy and visionary deal making experience. NAVR has been slow to align NetRadio with other online portals, which goes to show you how poorly they may fair at the table with a potential suitor. Look at PointCast as an example of dealmaking failure. They could have done an IPO, or merged with a dozen potential suitors, yet they bungled at every avenue, and now have nobody interested, and are laying off half their staff despite having such a valueable and unique push service. The only recent Internet Deal that's impressed me was Vulcan's cash buyout of Go2Net. Yahoo's rich stock makes good currency, but it's a generous deal only on paper. The YHOO stock for Broadcast.com insiders will probably not be sellable for a long time, and by then the market may sober up to Yahoo's overvalue. Sorry for rambling; all I'm saying is that it's the perception of a potential buyer of NetRadio that is helping the stock, but two factors make this reality doubtful anytime soon. One is their only fair dealmaking record, and the other is the fact that they actually filed an S-1?! If they had people sniffing around NetRadio to buy it out, then why would they have actually filed an intent to do an IPO. Actually, it might turn out later, that many companies WERE interested in buying NetRadio, and that is why NAVR kept pushing off the S-1 filing, until their deal making ability crippled the potential suitors, and they were now fourced to do the S-1 as a last resort to bail out of NetRadio overhead, and cash in. I'm LONG since $12 with only half the position that I wanted going into the IPO launch period, and this pop is a welcome gain. But I'm looking to sell early this week, as I think this enthusiasm is based in fantasy. The reality is, NetRadio is not in play anymore now that the S-1 is filed, and this remains an IPO event investment, one of which has not yet come into focus as we still know too little about the IPO to make a prudent decision as to NAVR's potential market cap after the NetRadio IPO. Until we know more, I will be an opportunist seller, not an event driven buyer. If NAVR is so stupid, as to miss the current euphoria in their stock to release the NetRadio IPO details sometime this week, then we will see $12 sooner then most here want to believe. No, I'm not short, nor do I want to go short, I'm just trying to get people on this thread to think some more before throwing more money into NAVR, and missing yet another opportunity to take some short term profits. If anyone here actually likes my stock event timing ideas, you may want to look at TRAC. It will start online stock trading 04/12, and really looks great. It's a shame you could not get TRAC under $10 when it was under accumulation. Now it's a momentum event trade, and it's tiny float will help exaggerate all the upticks. You may want to look at the Yahoo thread on it, as SI underfollows it. TRAC is why my NAVR position is modest, as I took all my NAVR profits from $16 recently, and plowed them into TRAC at $9.50