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To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (24908)	4/4/1999 3:13:00 AM
From: nicewatch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Ike and ALL, updated SPX, TYX charts etc. at geocities.com As always, feel free to comment or throw stones. FWIW, talk to you later Regards, Frank

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (24908)	4/4/1999 7:51:00 AM
From: LABMAN	Respond to of 50167

IQBAL what are your thoughts of a possible correction of 5-10 % around april 15-apr 18, if we do see a correction, where do you see the downside to, my humble analysis of chats are indicating the following 1. the limit of the upside move short term 10,300-10,400 2. after april 15 down side risk to possible 9200 lm

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (24908)	4/4/1999 12:59:00 PM
From: Killian	Respond to of 50167

IKE, HAPPY EASTER to you and your family! I read your thread daily and I feel the LOVE you portray for ALL of humanity through your many educational posts! May God continue to Bless you and your family!!! Kevin

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (24908)	4/4/1999 2:42:00 PM
From: LABMAN	Respond to of 50167

FORTHCOMING EARNINGS Special Report: Profit Preview The word for earnings: Uncertainty By Barbara C.Costanza, CBS MarketWatch Last Update: 3:23 PM ET Apr 3, 1999 Earnings Schedule Earnings Headlines BOSTON (CBS.MW) -- As the window for earnings warnings starts to close, earnings season is once again upon us. Corporate reports for the first quarter of 1999 will start flowing in this week, with the peak coming later this month. There are always surprises. But few people have a better view of what's to come than Chuck Hill, director of research for First Call, the Boston-based company that monitors corporate warnings, analyst's earnings-estimate revisions and past performance. CBS.MarketWatch.com contacted Hill and found even he's quite uncertain about what to expect for the first quarter, a sign the market could be facing added risk in the weeks to come. What's the overall mood for the upcoming earnings season? Hill: The first quarter of 1999 should be just as good or somewhat better than the fourth quarter of 1998. The general view is that the third quarter of 1998 was the bottom for earnings and that the worst is behind us. I'm not so sure that is the case. I think the first and second quarter numbers will run close to the fourth quarter, but a lot hinges on oil prices and there are some worries in the technology sector. There is uncertainty. Earnings uncertainty for the next several quarters is greater than in 1998. In 1998, everyone knew it was a downtrend. Pre-season warnings have been on the decline this quarter. Is that any indication of what to expect? Hill: I think it says the downward trend may be bottoming out but that's not to say this is an uptrend. The odds are we'll end up with less negative announcements. We have 96 warnings so far in the first quarter, compared to last year's first-quarter total of 275. However, we still have the first two weeks of April left. It's a surprise we didn't come in higher than last year but the real surprise is we might come in lower than last year. I don't think we'll see growth lower than the third quarter of 1998. With Asia, Brazil and many other economies stabilizing, how does that affect U.S. stocks and quarterly earnings. Hill: It's really not clear if it's all over. On the economic front there's not much out in the way of good news. There are no real signs that Japan is any better. However, if Nikkei average looks good in April, that could be an indication Japan is turning around. Latin America is going to get worst before it gets better. However, the Bulls will tell you Latin America is improving. Another factor to look at is Europe. Germany and Italy are showing negative GDP growth. You have a couple of major European economies hinging on major recessions. The questions to ask are "Are economic problems spreading to Europe? And if so, will it spill over into the U.S. by the end of the year or will the U.S. remain an island in regards to inflation?" See International Indexes. What sector seem to be deteriorating. Hill: Papers, chemicals, capital equipment. Who looks better this quarter, large or small cap stocks? Hill: Large caps still run the show. Look at the Russell 2000 and the Standard & Poor's 500, growth is still slower for the Russell 2000 compared to the S&P 500. It seems nearly every quarter there's this grand expectations that the small cap market will outperform the larger market but it never seems to materialize. And going into the second quarter, that same expectation holds true. What sector(s) should investors keep an eye on? Hill: Technology and oil. Look at what information is coming from those sectors. In technology don't look at year-over-year that isn't the trend. The real issue is how do they look relative to what is expected. Look at the sequential quarters for what the trend is. Technology has been the driver in recovery. Will the tech sector run out of steam from the bounce back of inventory cut backs? Is the Y2K issue providing extra business to technology companies? If the technology sector starts to fizzle that could be an indicator of what's to come. As far as oil, let's see if oil producers adhere to previously announced oil cuts. Would you include Internet stocks in your definition of technology? Hill: No, Internet stocks are a separate issue. To borrow Greenspan's line, "irrational exuberance" runs rampant in the Internet sector. But the fact remains that this irrational exuberance indicates investors are still looking at technology. When I say technology, I'm referring to companies such as: Intel (INTC), Dell (DELL), Lucent (LU), Cisco (CSCO), Microsoft (MSFT) and the like. Those are the ones you want to watch. Will they have high growth or will analysts be trimming estimates for the second quarter and/or second half of 1999. How important are earnings this quarter and the year? Hill: Earnings are always important. But investors should be paying more attention to what companies might say about the second quarter in first-quarter reports. Investors should also pay more attention right now to cross currents and economies. Any last words to investors before earnings season begins? Hill: As an investor, you should have extreme confidence in the companies you invest in. In this economy there is no room for disappointment. Due to uncertainty, vulnerability is far greater now. Look for guidance in this market. Always be selective and select based on confidence for the next couple of quarters. Also see: Economic impacts, Blue chip patterns, Hardware sector and Software sector. Barbara C.Costanza is a CBS.MarketWatch.com reporter who writes the Earnings Surprises column. SoapBox airs the views of investors, executives, companies and just plain folks. 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