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Pastimes : Let's Talk About Our Feelings!!! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tim McCormick who wrote (33644)	4/4/1999 3:23:00 AM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 108807

Tim, try it with a simulation. I think if you do the answer will be clear. Remember that your first pick has a 1/3 chance of being right, and that isn't changed by Monte tossing out one of the two remaining possibilities. You still have a 1/3 chance, but now the 2/3 are concentrated in a single choice. The reason is that tossing out one of the two remaining choices did not give you additional information about the initial choice you made, but it did concentrate the probability in the remaining choice. TTFN, CTC