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To: Death Sphincter who wrote (9759)	4/4/1999 3:35:00 AM
From: Vitas	Respond to of 99985

we must constantly adjust..... with certain 'points' to hit in the process..... I 'LL BUY YOU ON PART OF THAT .it calculated out to 1323 as it progressed....so far i am a very lucky guesser...... we have seen wave 4 after that , and now the final wave 5 in a 2 part (wave) series.....1 from 3/24 to 3/29--then down--now the finale up smell-o-rama to come....then a big "BUY THE FART"....on the way up to the MAJOR PROCTOLOGIC EXAM sTinKO ThEM

To: Death Sphincter who wrote (9759)	4/5/1999 2:07:00 AM
From: Death Sphincter	Respond to of 99985

Earnings and Warnings.....from First Call's Chuck Hill By Barbara C.Costanza, CBS MarketWatch Last Update: 3:23 PM ET Apr 3, 1999 Earnings Schedule Earnings Headlines BOSTON (CBS.MW) -- As the window for earnings warnings starts to close, earnings season is once again upon us. Corporate reports for the first quarter of 1999 will start flowing in this week, with the peak coming later this month. There are always surprises. But few people have a better view of what's to come than Chuck Hill, director of research for First Call, the Boston-based company that monitors corporate warnings, analyst's earnings-estimate revisions and past performance. CBS.MarketWatch.com contacted Hill and found even he's quite uncertain about what to expect for the first quarter, a sign the market could be facing added risk in the weeks to come. What's the overall mood for the upcoming earnings season? Hill: The first quarter of 1999 should be just as good or somewhat better than the fourth quarter of 1998. The general view is that the third quarter of 1998 was the bottom for earnings and that the worst is behind us. I'm not so sure that is the case. I think the first and second quarter numbers will run close to the fourth quarter, but a lot hinges on oil prices and there are some worries in the technology sector. There is uncertainty. Earnings uncertainty for the next several quarters is greater than in 1998. In 1998, everyone knew it was a downtrend. Pre-season warnings have been on the decline this quarter. Is that any indication of what to expect? Hill: I think it says the downward trend may be bottoming out but that's not to say this is an uptrend. The odds are we'll end up with less negative announcements. We have 96 warnings so far in the first quarter, compared to last year's first-quarter total of 275. However, we still have the first two weeks of April left. It's a surprise we didn't come in higher than last year but the real surprise is we might come in lower than last year. I don't think we'll see growth lower than the third quarter of 1998. With Asia, Brazil and many other economies stabilizing, how does that affect U.S. stocks and quarterly earnings. Hill: It's really not clear if it's all over. On the economic front there's not much out in the way of good news. There are no real signs that Japan is any better. However, if Nikkei average looks good in April, that could be an indication Japan is turning around. Latin America is going to get worst before it gets better. However, the Bulls will tell you Latin America is improving. Another factor to look at is Europe. Germany and Italy are showing negative GDP growth. You have a couple of major European economies hinging on major recessions. The questions to ask are "Are economic problems spreading to Europe? And if so, will it spill over into the U.S. by the end of the year or will the U.S. remain an island in regards to inflation?" See International Indexes. XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX i find it interesting that there are only 96 warnings so far...BUT i also wonder....going into the 1st Q of 1998 expectations were still high for continued high growth rates and estimates had not been significantly trimmed, therefore, the warnings surprised many and were high. The talk THEN was that a bit of a slow down would continue thru the 2nd Q and then the 3rd Q and 4th Q would pick up sharply..DOES ANYONE ELSE REMEMBER THAT TALK?!? well, since that time the 3Q and 4Q did not pick up sharply and consequently, the bar was lowered again and again on forward estimates could it be that this persistant lowering is the reason that there are fewer warnings now than 1 year ago...i wonder BS

To: Death Sphincter who wrote (9759)	4/6/1999 12:32:00 AM
From: Vitas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

sTinKO ThEM, >>>if these numbers are broken to the upside, then i will look for the 1350 and 10,200...this will bother me in regards to the trendline<<< >>>1350-1360 has always been a target....<<< the spx trendline from 7-20-98 through 1-8-99 tomorrow is 1320 the spx trendline from 4-6-98 through 1-8-99 tomorrow is 1322.5 the spx trendline from 4-6-98 through 7-20-98 tomorrow is 1335.20 Now that minutia isn't as important as the fact that the McClellan oscillator and the 5% and 10% indexes are getting very close to breaking out above down trendlines from November. In addition, LG has a trendline of the summation drawn in that may be important if we break above it, and we are very close. (as of 4/1/99) homestead.com If those oscillators were to break out, that would tend to indicate that the last few months were a consolidation prelude to a substantial run to the upside, essentially killing the stinko scenario. So I can't see the spx hitting 1350-1360 right now, unless we are about to do a major break out. A number of turning point days have been mentioned on the thread that are coming up. One possibility is a 188 day top cycle that arrives 4-19-99. Is there an alternate count that allows for a failure at the SPX 1320 - 1322.5 trendlines now, and then a final rally into IRA day which could nominally exceed the 1323 level you called for a couple of weeks ago (nice one), and stay under the above rising trendlines? Vitas