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Technology Stocks : Safeguard Scientifics SFE -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert miller who wrote (2486)	4/4/1999 9:24:00 PM
From: michael r potter	Respond to of 4467

Robert, A chance at ICG would be fun. I just looked at options on SFE, and the premiums are quite amazing. The April $75 calls are over $2. There are only two weeks until they expire. Breakeven for the buyer is $77 in two weeks. That means that SFE has to go up 15% in two weeks or an annualized rate of 390% . The May $80 calls are $4 1/8 by $4 1/2. High expectations. The obvious question is with the lofty premiums, should one sell covered calls to take advantage? [Then greed takes over, and I can't help feeling that an ICG registration announcement, might incite investors to riot and take SFE up on the next leg-don't want to be short calls then!]. This is one of those times I can't come up with a short term scenario [up or down] that has much over a 50% probability of being correct based on technicals. The puts are pretty rich too. The May $60s are $5 1/8 by $5 5/8. Of course the high premiums reflect high March volatility. In the "old days" [pre-internet], the correct course would be to sell the calls and the puts, as the premiums collapse when the stock fluctuates in a narrow trading range and premiums collapse. The only thing for certain, is that either the puts or the calls are going to die rather expensively for the buyers of one side. Could be both sides eat it. Will be clear shortly. Mike

To: robert miller who wrote (2486)	4/5/1999 1:48:00 AM
From: michael r potter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4467

Was just looking at the CMGI 6 mo. chart. Oct. low was [all #s approx.] $17, then it made a run to the mid $40s, pulled back to the mid $30s, from there went fairly quickly to $70, pulled back to $55- Now so far, what other stock that we know just went through this pattern- same sequence of almost exact #s? [I know, CMGIs are split adjusted] ahem, to continue, then CMGI shot out of the box and in a matter of weeks and went to $150. Does this mean that SFE is destined to embark on a quick moonshot to $150? Sorry, don't have the answer, but was just looking at the CMGI chart for a feel of how it was doing and the pattern popped right out- thought it was worth passing along. Mike