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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (9768)	4/4/1999 11:30:00 AM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

donald and All: Happy Easter to all as well... I just posted an updated DecisionPoint chart with trend lines added. homestead.com DecisionPoint.Com is a great place for information. Regards, LG

To: donald sew who wrote (9768)	4/4/1999 2:23:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Respond to of 99985

I tried to respond to you and a few of the others that responded to my post yesterday but received Squid errors and was unable to get the posts out. To digitom, yes I feel that TA often moves the market as many look at the same indicators. This may be why I often see a stock bounce where it should and some "news" is spun afterward to explain the move by the talking heads. Once a stock is labeled as out of favor, yes, it doesn't seem to matter if it really has value or not. Even Briefing.com had an article on one of my favorites that openly stated that the stock was a bargain, trading waaaay under value but the Mo Mo was negative so hold off on buying it. When the talking heads even admit it is a Mo Mo market, either the market is close to the edge of the cliff or it is time to start buying the value with both hands as the trend reverses. >>I believe his current opinion of the market is - befuddled.<< LOL, Maybe I should change my SI name to that. Befuddled has a nice ring to it <ggg> Thanks you all for the excellent responses to my ranting. I just forced myself to look at my entire chart list this weekend since there was an extra day in this weekend and most of the charts looked horrible yet I see bullish patterns on many of the indexes and stocks that least deserve to go up. Apparently investors/traders have selective short memories. PG had a bad earnings release and gave an extremely bearish outlook on the future earnings guidance yet they are right up there with many of the other high flyers. Don's point about missing out rings true. I don't know how many times I have written friends advising them on thier stocks telling them it is overvalued but I wouldn't sell it yet because their cost basis is low enough to risk a drop and that the chart says it is getting ready to rally further. A few days later they thank me because they made 25% in 2 days as it shot up on some bogus release. I swear they make up the news to justify what the chart says will happen. I then feel guilty for not riding along saying to myself or wife, "I called that one and I didn't act on it, why?" Unfortunatly, it looks like the DOW could easily see 10200, the SPX 1035 etc. More is possible. The market just needs to decide if it will stay somewhat sideways with an upward bias or perform the blowoff top scenario like last summer. What it really NEEDS to do is let the air out of the bubble but since Clinton has started the sequel to Vietnam, I doubt the Fed will let that happen now. Wars are OK when the market is up <ng> If I were a Republican, I would go out of my way not to win this next election. I guess this is fine too since the longer they hold this up, the closer and thus the cheaper it is for those fall time frame puts that should prove to be guaranteed money in the bank. Good Luck, Lee (aka Befuddled)

To: donald sew who wrote (9768)	4/5/1999 12:55:00 AM
From: Daniel Joo	Respond to of 99985

3 events that will trigger a bear market: 1) Kosovo conflict will escalate with ground troops. Will Russia expand its involvement beyond feeding the Serbs with intelligence from its ship on the Mediterranean? 2) Interest rates will continue its rise to 6% and beyond. Will the Fed follow? When will Rubin retire? 3) Microsoft will settle its court case. Will the government win a substantial concession - partial breakup? IMO, the first 2 events will hit in April triggering the market decline. The 3rd event will be the final straw. I'm reading a new book: The Bear Book - Survive and Profit in Ferocious Markets by: John Rothchild Interesting reading - interesting parallels. Dan