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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (39334)	4/4/1999 5:41:00 PM
From: FJV	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

GZ, IMHO, it is a calculated risk they must take. Yes it's possible that the nationalistic fervor currently being cultivated may prove to be uncontrollable. More likely, however, is that such stirred emotions will gravitate toward a military friendly strong man, most likely a communist. There are no shortage of charismatic hard liners in Russia, and the oligarchs know that, while risky, such an upheaval would kill a couple of birds with one stone. First, such a change facilitate blaming Western style government and capitalism for the myriad of problems faced by the Russian people. Second, it would accelerate the "common enemy" attitude, and facilitate the isolationism necessary to a return of what will be perceived as the "old ways" by the people. The "old ways" - before the ruble collapse, unemployment, hyper-inflation became synonymous with a market economy, are very attractive to most Russians. Freedom of speech and the press are both important, but you can't eat them or wear them. Thus, capitalism is an anathema to most Russians, and its failure justifies its removal. Never mind that its failure had much less to to with with soundness of the system than with its execution, including the rampant crime and corruption spawned by the transition from a closed economy. Also, the current spin will cast doubts about security of its domain, given the "wanton, illegal aggression" perpetrated by the West. This spin will pave the way for a pro-military strong man,in order to restore a semblance of the security enjoyed during the Cold War, when the Soviet Union was a super power. Like all propaganda, there is some small basis for the spin, and the Russians are so ready to hear it. The order restored by such a coup is necessary for the oligarchs to retain some control and protect their wealth, unless they somehow become the target of the coup. That's not likely, but it is possible. What's the alternative for them? A major change is about to hit Russia one way or the other. If the current power structure cannot deflect blame for the misery now experienced by the people, surely an anarchistic civil war is in the cards, and that spells trouble for the oligarchs. They need to back a strong man they can control with their immense wealth stolen from the IMF (read the U.S.)and their own people. A nationalistic, pro-military, anti-American regime just may be controllable with the right titular head. All the ingredients are there for a coup in Russia and IMHO, it will be happening within months. Like everywhere else, money talks and BS walks. The obscenely wealthy oligarchs pulling the strings are about buy themselves a civil war they believe they can control. The time is right because NATO has opened the window of opportunity for them. The Bear has woken up and we were the alarm clock. The Cold War is about to be revived. BWDIK. Franco

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (39334)	4/5/1999 2:05:00 AM
From: Peter Singleton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

GZ, my take is a little different, based on what I've read, and a conversation with a good friend in Moscow. It seems the Russian government isn't promoting anti-US sentiment, rather they're trying to stay ahead of a upwelling popular mood. One of the big surprises in this Kosovo debacle (and, yes, I do think Clinton is behaving like a serial rapist - just to randomly choose a crime <g> - who was tried and acquited ... now feeling superhuman, he becomes more and more reckless in his behavior) is the passion reaction of the average Russian. Besides the nationalists and communists, my experience with most Russians is they're basically positive toward the US, plus they're preoccupied with survival, but our actions in Kosovo have outraged folks over there. Peter