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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (9778)	4/4/1999 1:18:00 PM
From: StockOperator	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

GZ, if the oversold breadth ever turns up from here, look out above Absolutely. That's exactly why you can't allow the extreme valuations of a few stocks to shake you out of the game. As long as the charts point to higher prices you have to stay long here. Besides when I consider the narrow breadth I always try to remind myself that this small group of companies are revolutionizing the world. They are in the forefront of the technological forces shaping the marketplace. So who am I to say when their run will stop. They could get a lot more expensive from here. Of course I am watching things closely. With prices at critical points on their charts, I am looking for a quick resolution (either up or down) to many of the patterns on the charts. Regards, SO

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (9778)	4/4/1999 2:36:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

I have often wondered about that myself and I believe I asked this question a while back. I see there are 3 scenarios possible. 1.) The majority of stocks that are down, finally begin to recover using sidelined money pushing the indexes up further and as breadth improves, we relax and start a new bull run. 2.) The down trodden stocks move up but use money from the inflated street favorites improving breadth but the indexes don't move much since the high flyers are the ones that tend to prop up the indexes so as the small guys move up it is ofset by the big boys moving down. 3.)Lack of breadth finally breaks the market down when enough of the big boys disappoint and it becomes apparent that paying high PE ratios for decreasing earnings can't go on and we finally capitulate and the indexes show what has been going on for a while now. I feel the small caps and smaller midcaps with low float will probably never recover anymore just due to the funds having to be able to get in and out quickly thus their reluctance to move in these. Only if the market solves the problems we talk about everyday and when clear blue skies show up again will there be any chance of funds moving into the lower float stocks. Some one asked me the other day about Y2K and the market. We always think about 1 Jan as Y2K but he brought up the point of Fiscal year. Since October is always a bad time for the market, what a nice cover story for the final breakdown if the Y2K were to hit at the Fiscal 1 October 2000 mark. Hmmmm Good Luck, Lee

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (9778)	4/4/1999 2:38:00 PM
From: jjs_ynot	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

We are at a critical juncture in the market (aren't they all?). THe A/D is nearing zero from below. The S&P 500 and other indices are rapidly converging with their 50 DMA. The intermediate trend is slightly down at the current time. We are either going to have a break to new highs or a decent correction in fairly short order. The ability (or lack thereof) to move A/D above 0 may tell the story.

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (9778)	4/4/1999 6:36:00 PM
From: ted cerezo	Respond to of 99985

Hi Ground Zero! You make a good arguement. Acutally, the negative breadth that the US market is experiencing can be considered something similar to 1994. Remember the terrible breadth of the market back in 1994? And what happened afterward? 1994 is somewhat labeled as a 'stealth' bear market and what has occured within the past year can also be considered a 'stealth' bear market. No pattern is ever the same but a good arguement can be made about the current market condition. Let also say that 1998 experienced a bear market and 1994 was also a bear market (stealth) and everybody know 1990 was a bear. See a pattern emerging? A four year cycle? If this pattern continue to hold, then we won't experience a significant substantial decline of great magnitude until the year 2002...Ted

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (9778)	4/5/1999 12:45:00 PM
From: Robert Graham	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

This supports how at times the price action of stocks in the market reminds me of what I would expect in a bear market. I think this has been a split market for some time. I never considered that the bottom may be near. But then look at the extreme low readings some of the breadth indicators have made in the recent past while the market continues to demonstrate to me surprising strength in this context. This market is not as sick as some of these indicators seem to suggest. At times I do not like the swings of sentiment I have been seeing in some of the price action of stocks, particularly some of the Internet leadership stocks. But I am not used to following this stuff on an intraday basis. I wonder how much of this is the market being in close proximity to new highs? But then I have notices a pattern of increasing positive market breadth on rallies. It is almonst like the last sell off was part of a type of basing pattern that can precede a run up. I suspect if both the NASDAQ and the DJIA break to new ground at about the same time, this would be a good positive for the market short term. But I do not like what I have been seeing with the DJIA. Still the S&P 500 has been showing strength in its price action. Any comments? Bob Graham