Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jeff Jordan who wrote (9782)	4/4/1999 5:59:00 PM
From: Jack Luo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

To ALL, After reading an increased amount of posts (some of them are really excellent) in the last a few days, I found out that most people in this thread agreed on a significant market movement very soon. Some have predicated a large correction is coming, including myself. Few predicated a new bull run, based on their TA system. Yes, I have to say that several key index charts, SPX, OEX, and NAZ, do show a upside potential since they are nearby the corner of an ascending triangle, which typically indicates a uptrend movement in a bull market. Whether or not we are still in a bull market is another debatable topic. From my limited TA experience, this is the only bullish sign that I can see, so many other indicators pointed to the other direction. I would be appreciated if someone in this thread with bullish view can point out indicators or charts which support a continuous uptrend movement, instead of a decent correction in a very near term. I admit that I was a little bit puzzled by some index charts which contradict my belief of a decent correction. Therefore, my best educated guess is that market will have a short-lived rally, it may or may not reach the all time high before the correction begins. As many of us know, the 6-month bull run in a 9-month cycle will end this week. If that cycle repeats itself with the same period this year (it has to be!), the turning point could very well be this week unless the good earning news keep coming to extend the current run for few more weeks. Market will jump up in the Monday opening due to a "good" March job/payroll report. Bond market already did in last Friday morning session. We shall be very cautious no matter how much market is jumping up; big boys could take that opportunity to exit. It that happens, it will be bloody. I am neither a day trader, nor can I closely monitor the market in the daytime. I took action late last week to take most of my money out of the table. Risk/Reward ratio is too high in this time frame, it is just not worthy of gambling a timing game. Nobody can predicate the exact top. So many factors could change market direction in the current situation. One of the reasons that I made defensive move last week is to protect myself in case the March job report was bad. As some of you very well stated, the market badly needs a decent correction to adjust its high valuation, the real question is what will be the trigger. Here are my thoughts on some events which we should watch closely: War in Kosovo - If NATO would decide to commit a ground troop with US involvement, the selling-off could be triggered. However, some theory says war could boost economy, thus the stock market. History seems to support that theory. However, since we are already in an over-valued stock market, I really doubt that US involvement in a ground war can be a positive news to WS. YHOO will announce their earning after 4/7 market close. If YHOO earning is below the first-call estimate, the disappointment may trigger the selling, that could affect other Net stocks. As we all know, the internet stocks are the main supports of this over-valued market. If one of them retreats, the sympathetic selling of other net stars could generate a snow ball effect. GE will announce earning on 4/8. GE has not disappointed WS for so many years. I don't think it will this time. But anything could happen in the real world. GE also has a high valuation, with respect to its growth rate, its earning is very closely watched by WS. Given the pre-season warning from other famous big caps, such as KO, PG, IBM, and EK, GE's result will have more profound effect on the overall market this season. Some in this thread were a little bit frustrated by illogical sentiment of the market. I share the same view and feeling. Let's be patient, fun will start very soon!! Let's enjoy the game, even though I am watching on the sideline right now ... Happy Investing for all of us! Jack