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Technology Stocks : LSI Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J_W who wrote (17676)	4/4/1999 9:27:00 PM
From: Tony Viola	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25814

Jim, I just hope that they don't report blowout numbers at this point, as it will only serve to raise the bar even higher the next quarter. We can use blowout. Take it to a higher level. Earnings have been in the toilet long enough. It's not like AMD...every time they get something going, they shoot themselves in the foot and Intel clubs them upside the head. LSI has the good, consistent manufacturing to crank out the great new products that have been described here ad nauseum. Bring on blowout (or at least a decent upside surprise). Tony

To: J_W who wrote (17676)	4/4/1999 10:31:00 PM
From: patrick tang	Respond to of 25814

.. steady climb in Q to Q earnings over the next couple of years .. is exactly what you will not see. By design i.e. cost cuttings to layoffs and old fab closing and also through 5% sequential Q sales growth, the earnings are going to go Q1 '99 - original (Oct/Nov '98) plan losing money, now because of 5% growth Q4 and another 5% growth Q1, will show slight profit, 10c would just be great, 5c not too bad, but I think street is expecting at least that much or more. Q2 '99 - original break even Q when all cost cuttings are done, sales flat to Q3 '98, now will definitely on its way to making money, but not the original target plan yet. If Q3 '99 will do target plan or 17% margins on ~$400M sales and 45% on anything above that, Q2 will show it's on its way there with ~25c profit? Q3 '99 and onwards should simply spike up to plan of 17% margins on ~$400M and 45% on anything above that. This translates to probably >50c/share/Q. As can be seen from above scenario, one which is what the management laid out during the layoffs last Oct/Nov. plus 5% sequential Q sales increases that started Q4 '98 (ref. article a few posts above that suggested that we have started the semi recovery after 3 lean years), the stock price is not 'hyped' in any sense. Simply a reflection of earnings to come, earnings that are well within reach of LSI (big applause for Corrigan and the whole operations staff by the way if they can hit their stated target). Or as Morgan Stanley put it, I think ... 'getting set for explosive earnings growth' or something like that. The rise in this stock is no hype. If last Q they deliver 5c, I expect the stock to pull back to high $20s. 7c to 8c, I expect it to stay in low $30s. Anything 10c or over, I expect it to go reach for over $40 right away. Of course they can and will dress it up with 'charges for inventory ....' or such stuff! Boy, would I love to know 'exactly' how strong Q1 was and how strong Q2 bookings are like. Then I can give you a really good 'professional' recommendation like the analysts. Not to mention I can make some serious money myself. Right now I am tempted to trade my long position with a sale order of $36, which I think we can hit before earnings. But if they do report 10c, the stock might go up even higher after earnings. Thus I think I'll sit; at least with my basic long position anyway. patrick